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《大行報告》高盛:中國科網股自高位已累計蒸發2萬億美元 從基本情境計股價具上漲空間
阿思達克 04-26 11:15
高盛發表中國市場策略報告,由於中國對行業收緊監管、中概股在美國潛在退市風險、美國利息展望趨升、中國資產估值上反映地緣政治風險的溢價、以及中國經濟增長面臨挑戰等因素影響下,中國的科技、互聯網股自14個月之前的股價創新高之後至今已累積下跌約60%,蒸發2萬億美元(約15.69萬億港元),相當於2021年GDP的11%。 該行指,隨著市場憧憬企業展開股份回購的樂觀情緒、以及冀望中概股潛在於美國退市或有望解決,中國互聯網股的股價從3月15日的底部累計反彈18%。該行指中國互聯網股目前估值相當預測市盈率17.4倍、動態市盈率0.7倍,按市盈率計較美國同業估值折讓33%。 高盛表示,對中國互聯網股份的估值模型表明,當前估值中已反映了市場預期經濟利潤將顯著下降等因素。 該行指,鑑於中國互聯網行業過去幾周消息面所產生的波動,令投資者專注於管理短期風險和倉位屬可以理解的,雖然該行相信行業基本面最終將佔估值水平的上風,並引導股價接近其長期均衡水平。但由於監管及中概股潛在於美國退市所帶來的不利因素仍然很大,該行認為投資者需要補充其以基本面為重點的估值方法(如SOTP(分類加總估值法)和/或PEG),對政策和監管變量有明確的看法,以更好地評估風險與回報。 高盛表示,對中國互聯網行業按股本回報率(ROE)和股權折現率(COE)水平的「基本」情境假設下,料當前股價與公允估值預測有50%上漲空間。作為參考,該行的互聯網研究團隊對其覆蓋的中國科網公司的目標價計,意味著相關股份於未來12個月的平均上漲空間為82%。
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