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券商料友邦(01299.HK)首季新業務價值按年跌20% 聚焦最新業務策略
多間券商(包括摩根士丹利、高盛及瑞銀等)發表報告均料友邦保險(01299.HK)將於下周五(29日)開市前公布今年首季新業務摘要,受累於本港第五波疫情、東盟國家貨幣兌美元按年貶值等因素影響下,本網綜合9間券商預測,友邦2022年首季新業務價值介乎8.21億美元至9.38億美元,較2021年首季新業務價值10.52億美元計,按年下跌10.8%至22%;中位數為8.39億美元,按年跌20%。 投資者將關注新冠疫情反覆對友邦短期業務的影響,包括內地及東南亞市場保險銷售活動會面臨壓力,聚焦管理層最新指引。 【受疫情所拖累 新業務價值降】 摩根士丹利發表報告指出,受內地市場的高基數,及香港爆發第五波疫情影響,預期友邦集首季新業務價值8.36億美元,按實質匯率(AER)計按年跌21%,按固定匯率(CER)計按年跌19%。該行指主要由於東盟國家貨幣兌美元按年貶值1%至8%。不過,該行預期友邦2022年全年新業務價值仍可錄得正增長,東盟市場估計會是亮點。該行維持對其「增持」評級及目標價124港元。 大摩估計疫情將拖累友邦旗下香港及內地業務表現,料旗下香港業務於今年首季新業務價值將按年下滑25%,並估計內地業務於今年首季新業務價值將按年下跌30% 而大和預料友邦今年首季新業務價值按年下跌22%,主因去年基數極高,兼且上海、深圳等城市的銷售被疫情影響,料公司旗下內地業務於今年首季新業務價值將按年下滑30%,並料公司旗下香港業務於今年首季新業務價值將錄雙位數字下滑。 ------------------------------------------- 本網綜合9間券商預測,友邦2022年首季新業務價值介乎8.21億美元至9.38億美元,較2021年首季新業務價值10.52億美元計,按年下跌10.8%至22%;中位數為8.39億美元,按年跌20%。 券商│2022年首季新業務價值預測│(按實質匯率(AER))按年變幅 野村│9.38億美元│-10.8% 瑞信│8.66億美元│-17.7% 瑞銀│8.63億美元│-18% 高盛│8.52億美元│-19% 摩根大通│8.39億美元│-20% 摩根士丹利│8.36億美元│-20.5% 中金│8.21億美元│-22% 大和│8.21億美元│-22% 里昂│8.21億美元│-22% 按友邦2021年首季新業務價值10.52億美元計 (ta/w) ~
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