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《大行報告》中金預測恆指首季檢討結果 料百度、快手及京東健康等或「染藍」
就恆生指數服務公司將於5月20日公佈檢討結果,中金髮表報告測恆指首季檢討結果,基於現有數據及指數調整方法,以及通過此前調整結果對系統性優化後的編制方法的理解和驗證,該行估算百度集團-SW(09888.HK)、快手-W(01024.HK)、京東健康(06618.HK)、百濟神州(06160.HK)、中芯國際(00981.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)、嗶哩嗶哩-SW(09626.HK)及中國燃氣(00384.HK)排在恆生指數順位前列,有可能成爲被納入的潛在候選者。 該行測算優先考慮市值順位,再結合各行業代表性等因素得到。不過,歷史經驗表明,在實際調整中最終結果可能出入很大,主要是因爲一些作爲指數諮詢委員決策依據的因素,如行業和上市地代表性等並無詳細說明或量化依據,更不用說編制方法本身還在持續優化中,因此上述預測只能劃定大概的範圍 中金錶示,恆指成份股潛在權重變化方面,由於指數設置了8%的權重上限,匯豐控股(00005.HK)和友邦保險(01299.HK)的權重可能會從當前的8.32%和8.19%被動小幅下調至8%,進而帶來潛在被動資金流出。 不同於恆指等其他指數,恆生綜合指數調整頻率爲每半年度一次,故此次只會做局部小範圍調整。根據規則,一些符合條件的新上市公司可以在此次被納入,進而進入港股通。該行測算海螺環保(00587.HK)可能符合滬港通納入標準。
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