《大行報告》一表列出中金料內地降準對各內銀今年淨利潤影響預測
中金髮表報告表示,人行近日公佈下調金融機構存款準備金率0.25個百分點,此次降準釋放流動性5,300億人民幣,假設全部用於貸款投放,該行測算提升銀行淨息差0.6個基點,相當於2022年預測淨利潤0.6%。具體看,存款佔比 較高的國有大行和和常熟銀行(601128.SH)、渝農商行(601077.SH)等農商行息差受益較多。由於國務院常務會議提到內銀降低撥備率也有利於保持淨利潤增速穩定,該行重申內銀全年「否極泰來」看法。
該行指LPR(市場報價貸款利率)在MLF(中期借貸便利)利率上加點形成,幅度取決於資金成本、市場供求、風險溢價等。考慮到降準緩解負債壓力、首季度信貸需求較弱,該行不排除4月20日LPR報價下調可能性。假設LPR下調5個基點,測算對內銀淨息差負面影響約0.5個基點,相當於淨利潤0.5%。
該行列出內地降準0.25個百分點對各內銀今年淨利潤影響(靜態測算)預測:
股份│降準0.25個百分點對今年淨利潤影響預測
工行(01398.HK)│+0.39%
建行(00939.HK)│+0.38%
農行(01288.HK)│+0.46%
中行(03988.HK)│+0.43%
交通銀行(03328.HK)│+0.41%
郵儲銀行(01658.HK)│+0.71%
招行(03968.HK)│+0.25%
中信銀行(00998.HK)│+0.43%
民生銀行(01988.HK)│+0.48%
興業銀行(601166.SH)│+0.25%
光大銀行(06818.HK)│+0.43%
平安銀行(000001.SZ)│+0.37%
重農行(03618.HK)│+0.84%
浙商銀行(02016.HK)│+0.56%
江蘇銀行(600919.SH)│+0.34%
常熟銀行(601128.SH)│+0.77%
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上市銀行合計│+0.38%
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