中銀香港(02388.HK)料今年投資回報比過去兩年低且波幅大 單純買入後長線持有效果較低
中銀香港(02388.HK)個人數字金融產品部財富顧問處資深財富顧問高耀豪認為,目前環球央行正面對通脹上升的壓力而陸續退市加息,所以大市有一定風險,尤其當美國聯儲局決定加快加息之時,反映大市波幅的風險指標VIX波動指數低於VIX期貨指數,顯示投資者對後市憂慮大於目前,而高收益債息近日未見跟隨 VIX指數回落,反映信貸市場的憂慮大於股市。他認為,兩者的分歧隱含市場未來存在一定波動,投資者應注意資產配置以控制投資組合波幅,直至季內通脹與經濟增長正式改善,預期今年投資回報應比過去兩年為低且波幅較大,單純採取買入後長線持有的策略效果較低,因此策略上應該以均衡配置資產與地區分佈作為對沖風險的基礎,配合策略性配置適時調節比例。
高耀豪表示,預期價值型板塊仍將受惠於債息上升,增長股於調整後將吸引資金流入,加上滯脹風險上升時增長股優勢將增加,故投資風格可採取增長與價值型並存但偏重價值型的配置方向,債息預期仍有上行空間,這將利好環球高息股及銀行板塊。地區而言,他預期,聯儲局利率政策仍將落後於通脹而有利美股,惟債息進一步上行將對增長股為主的美股帶來影響,歐洲股市則以價值型板塊為主,歐洲受到俄烏局勢影響估值大幅折讓於美股,故中線應將繼續受惠於債息上行,惟需注意短期俄烏局勢仍為歐股帶來較高的不確定性。
高耀豪指,目前市場表現或會與歷史表現有異,傳統智慧認為利率應高於核心通脹2%方能使通脹受控,但現時利率減通脹的實際利率正處於歷史低位,並不支持使衰退出現的流動性緊張狀態,儘管市場對美聯儲加息預期持續升溫,但仍落後於通脹曲線,所以預期貨幣政策仍然支持企業運作。
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