《即日市評》憂內地「封城」 恆指向下 內需及汽車股捱沽
市場憂內地疫情蔓延,擔心干擾生產及供應鏈,港股今日向下。美股道指及納指上周五各升0.4%及跌1.3%;美國10年期債息連日上升,今日亞洲時段更一度升至近2.77厘,引致美國和中國的國債孳息率罕有地出現倒掛,錄近十二年首次。執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率處2.754厘,美匯指數處99.8,美股道指期貨最新跌109點或0.31%,納指期貨最新跌1.04%。內地3月CPI及PPI按年分別升1.5%及8.3%,內地3月新增人民幣貸款3.13萬億人民幣高預期,上證綜指全日跌84點或2.61%收3,167點,深證成指跌3.67%,滬深兩市成交額共9,637億人民幣。
恆指低開183點後跌幅擴大,曾跌739點一度低見21,132點,全日跌663或3.03%,收21,208點;國指跌281點或3.8%,收7,208點;恆生科技指數跌231點或5.24%,收4,191點。大市全日成交總額1,222.82億元。滬、深港通分別淨流入7.72億及5.41億元人民幣。科網股造淡,騰訊(00700.HK)股價下滑4.3%,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)挫5.1%。消費股亦走弱,海底撈(06862.HK)股價挫9.6%。
【憂疫情蔓延 汽車股受壓】
汽車股受壓,長汽(02333.HK)跌13%。電動車股蔚來(09866.HK)暫停整車生產,全日股價跌11.4%,小鵬(09868.HK)跌9.9%。中金指出,本輪疫情持續時間較長,料將對內地整車產銷和供應鏈環節產生一定影響,第一是涉疫地區車企生產停滯,交通出行和工人到崗受到影響,預計產能恢復尚需4月中旬後;第二是上游供應鏈間接影響,江蘇等周邊地區零部件廠商生產和交付延遲,導致車企生產受限。
中金認為汽車供應鏈緊缺成本上升,估計汽車及零部件行業短期利潤承壓,但新能源滲透率增長和汽車智能化長期趨勢不改,相關零部件依舊具有長期投資機會。
【跌股千五隻 手機股向下】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為7比35(上日21比18),下跌股份1,501隻(跌幅3.7%),恆指成份股今日8隻股份上升,下跌股份56隻,升跌比率為12比85(上日為62比33);大市今日錄沽空246.94億元,佔可沽空股份成交額1,056.2億的23.38%(上日為21.409%)。
手機及設備股亦受壓,小米(01810.HK)跌6.4%,舜宇(02382.HK)全日股價挫8.6%收106.5元,瑞聲(02018.HK)走低3.5%。瑞信發表報告指出,上海「封城」連帶周邊城市尤其是崑山亦受到影響。該行指許多位於上海和崑山的工廠同時進行閉環營運管理,市場關注供應鏈需求及物流中斷的影響。預期於上海及崑山敞口較高的軟件及硬件企業主要受到影響,而對半導體企業的影響則相對可控。
瑞信對今年中國智能手機付運預測由按年跌2%,進一步下調至6%。蘋果供應鏈所受影響較小,因第二季是傳統淡季,但成本有機會增加,而Android則可能受需求擔憂的影響。(wl/a)
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