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《大行報告》中金:保守料內房業年內共1.1萬億人幣信用債和ABS到期 後續景氣恢復尚不確定
中金發表報告指,該行覆蓋研究的內房股2021年核心淨利潤按年下跌1.6%,若包含業績未經審計房企則按年下降14.6%。報表毛利率按年下降3.8百分點至21.3%,含未經審計房企則按年下降4.7百分點至21.2%,後續報表利潤率會否較早企穩仍需關注實體市場回溫進程。 中金認為內房企業信用風險可能繼續發酵。由於銷售回款尚未見改善,當前行業現金流壓力並未得到有效緩解,信用風險事件仍在發生,保守估計行業年內共有1.1萬億人民幣的信用債和ABS(資產抵押證券)到期,今年4月、6月、7月、8月均為到期高峰。 該行認為,內房行業正面臨銷售端持續走弱和信用端風險發酵的雙重壓力,後續景氣恢復路徑仍具不確定性,行業主要預期差來自對於政策節奏的判斷差異。該行建議投資者在觀察到行業政策措施出現有力調整之前,繼續擁抱「均好型」優質開發商,首推中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地、美的置業(03990.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)。 後市如出現政策更為積極和有利的調整趨勢,則可考慮適當兼顧屆時仍存活的「彈性」優質民企,如旭輝(00884.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)等。
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