《大行報告》美銀證券升廣發證券(01776.HK)及中信建投證券(06066.HK)評級至「買入」
美銀證券發表告表示,中資券商股2021財年盈利平均按年增長35%,在基數較低下高於去年首九個月的增長,認爲長遠來看,內地居民財富將從住宅物業和固定收益產品轉向股票和基金,由此產生的財富管理、資產管理和機構服務,料將爲券商帶來巨大的增長機會。
該行表示,將廣發證券(01776.HK)評級從「中性」上調至「買入」評級,予目標價16.7元,認爲其將爲居民財富轉移的主要受益者,其資產管理敞口較大,作爲年初至今表現最差的券商,其目前估值處於遠期市賬率0.6倍,該行認爲隨着中國進一步放鬆貨幣政策,其股價將在今年第二至第三季恢復。
美銀證券相信,內地將在今年第三季啓動主板新股(IPO)上市制度改革,認爲中信建投證券(06066.HK)有望成爲IPO制度改革的主要受益者,因爲其是在承銷業務中最有優勢參與者,其2021年承銷業務收入佔調整後收入24%。該行將中信建投證券評級從「跑輸大市」上調至「買入」,予目標價10.6元。
美銀證券認爲,近期承銷、資產管理和衍生品營業額和基金銷售疲軟,業務組合更加平衡的券商龍頭更有能力實現增長,預計券商在今年第一季的平均盈利將略有下降,因爲交易收入的下降和更高的減值,應該足以抵銷手續費收入的增長,而業務組合平均的龍頭能實現持平至高單位數的利潤增長,首選股仍然是「買入」評級的中信證券(06030.HK)、中金公司(03908.HK)和華泰證券(06886.HK)。
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