摩根資產管理:若中國首季社融增長無加速有需要降準
摩根資產管理亞洲首席市場策略師許長泰表示,在內地未爆發新一波疫情前,今年經濟增長5.5%的官方目標屬於較困難,在爆發新一波疫情後,內地需要較大力度財政和貨幣政策,支持達到經濟增長5.5%的目標,若第一季社會融資增長沒有加速,便有需要下調存款準備金率。他相信,內地新一波疫情對消費影響會延續至5月,但以往經驗顯示疫情過後會出現報復式消費,不擔心疫情對消費的影響。
許長泰指,在美國加息但中國減息降準的環境下,中國貿易順差龐大、外資繼續流入中國股債市場,認爲今年人民幣貶值風險不高。另外他預計,內地政府會以穩定房地產成交爲重心,未必會協助資金出現問題的高負債房企,至於平臺經濟企業因爲監管問題、暫時面臨生意減少,很多科技企業開始開源節流以保障盈利。
據報中證監擬爲開放中概股審計底稿移除障礙。許長泰認爲,放寬中概股對美國監管機構披露的信息,可以降低中概股除牌風險,但在一些涉及國家安全的信息問題上,相信中美仍會有一定程度角力,相信雙方在來回協調磋商時,在美國上市的中概股仍會波動,認爲投資者不但要考慮除牌風險,也要考慮其業務表現。
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