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植耀輝: 美股4月開局造好 港股氣氛稍見改善
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國3月就業數據表現大致符合預期,反映當地經濟狀況依然理想,加上中概股亦有不俗表現,刺激美股造好,上周五(4月1日)三大指數均有不俗表現,當中道指上升139點或0.4%,收報34,818點,納指收報14,261點,上升40點或0.3%,標普500指數上升15點或0.34%,收報4,545點。 港股方面,在新經濟股及金融股支持下,恆指上周初續有好表現,最高便升至22,391點,逼近22,400點關口。不過隨著美國證交所再度出招,將更多中概股納入除牌名單,加上俄烏局勢又再度變得不明朗,拖累港股表現。不過恆指上周五最終仍能重上22,000點,收報22,039點,全周計累升634點,成交則受港股通暫停影響有所縮減。 美團(03690.HK)為升幅最大藍籌,累升達15%,事實上若計及騰訊(00700.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK),三者上周已為恆指貢獻接近290點。至於國際金融股亦受惠美國加息預期升溫,友邦(01299.HK)及匯控(00005.HK)分別上升3.6%及3%。 短期走勢方面,上周五港股收市後有消息指就審計問題上,中方有意讓步並交出審計底稿,消息刺激中概股造好,氣氛料有利今日港股表現。至於恆指走勢似略為改善,但整體投資氣氛仍有待觀察,特別是俄烏局勢時好時壞,投資者亦會繼續觀望未來中美公布之一系列經濟數據表現。此外,正如筆者上周指出,業績期雖已過,但大部分公司業績表現未見突出,亦令港股缺乏上升催化劑,相信恆指即使上揚,但22,500點之上會有較大阻力。短期於21,800至22,500點水平爭持。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ********** 恆指過去四月份的十年平均回報為2.9% 耀才研究部稱,上周五(4月1日)美股全線向上,步入四月份,投資者憧憬股市普遍向好,因為自從二戰後標指在四月的平均回報是1.7%。而港股於四月份的歷史表現亦不錯,恆指過去十年有九次錄得上升,平均升2.9%,值得憧憬一下。展望本周,美聯儲將公布議息紀要,而且多名聯儲官員將發表公開講話,關注利率期貨的走向會否對科技股再次造成壓力。另一個焦點為俄烏關係與中美關係的進展,中國擬考慮全面向美國提供企業審計底稿,並修訂減少中企於工作底稿中出現機密資料,從而避免機密資料流出,中概股上周五造好,假設中美關係改善,亦有助大市再度挑戰橫行區間頂部位置亦即22,423點水平。最後為內地疫情的變化,最新於蘇州發現Omicron變種病毒中的BA.1.1進化分支,於全球數據庫中首見,要小心出現二度爆發的話亦將拖累消費股的表現,不過供應鏈的上游例如資源股則可能受惠。 技術上,以日線圖而言,恆指再度於接近22,400點後回落,目前仍未能擺脫上落市格局,只能維持於21,100點至22,400點間波動,需小心目前指數於22,400點造成了小雙頂格局,當中頸線亦即20天線水平不宜有失。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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