植耀輝: 俄烏局勢續左右後市 港股暫區間上落
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,俄烏局勢繼續牽動全球投資氣氛。周初傳出會面有突破,環球金融市場即迎來一輪反彈,不過隨著俄羅斯指沒有實質進展,氣氛又再度轉差。自開戰至今筆者對當地局勢及消息均抱觀望心態,畢竟所有消息均出自某一兩個渠道,所以對其真確性亦要抱一定戒心;而且從歷史經驗及觀察,即使停戰協議達成,雙方是否能遵守又是另一個問題,甚至或許這只是權宜之計呢?所以奉勸大家在此件事上不要「跟車太貼」矣!
港股方面,恆指及國指年初暫累跌6%及8.6%。不過短期似乎又有另一因素困擾市場,就是停牌潮。由於已有為數不少之企業宣布延遲刊發業績,意味今日(4月1日)開始會有大批公司需要停牌,當中又以內房板塊比例較多,在停牌疊加債務問題下,未來恐怕會進一步利淡內房股投資氣氛。
至於大市去向,3月港股在驚濤駭浪(全月波幅達到4,702點)下累跌716點或3.15%,由於業績期已過以及短期變數仍多(包括俄烏局勢以及中美經濟數據表現),加上未來數個交易日缺乏「北水」關係,預期大市在未有進一步利好催化劑之前,將維持於21,500至22,000點附近上落,成交量亦傾向淡靜。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指未能向上突破 較大機會回試20天線水平
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,俄烏局勢未明繼續拖累市況氣氛,隔晚(31日)美股三大指數均挫1%以上。美國經濟數據亦較為參差,2月份實際個人開支按月減0.4%,核心PCE按年升5.4%,兩者均差過預期。板塊中,金融股普遍受壓,拖累指數以近全日低位收市。美國SEC亦新增百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)、富途(FUTU.US)及愛奇藝(IQ.US)等5間中概股進入預定除牌名單內,金龍中國指數亦急挫5%。由於俄烏以及中美關係停滯不前,加上近期業績股並未有一致勝預期,恆指將維持於21,100點起計至22,400點的橫行區間作上落市格局,較大機會恆指將回試20天線支持。今早有逾30家上市公司停牌,主要由於未能如期公布截至去年12月底之業績,當中大部份包括內房企業。
技術上,恆指周三高見22,391點後,目前指數關鍵阻力位22,423點未能突破,將維持21,100點至22,400點水平上落。目前需小心指數未能成功升穿橫行區間後則會造成小雙頂格局,而跌穿頸線的話將有過千點額外回吐。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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