一文了解大行於農行(01288.HK)公佈去年業績後最新目標價及觀點
農業銀行(01288.HK)今早股價靠穩,摩根大通指農行去年第四季淨利潤按年升8%,高於該行預期6%,該行亦引述農行管理層指,農行今年首兩個月新增貸款6,304億元人民幣,按年升3.7%,管理層料今年新增信貸按年增長不少於10%。
農行昨日(30日)收市後公佈去年業績,純利按年升12%至2,411.83億元人民幣,歸屬於普通股股東淨利潤按年升10%至2,273.85億元人民幣,高於本網綜合9間券商預測中位數2,200.63億元人民幣。每股盈利0.65元人民幣。每股派末期息20.68分人民幣。
農行去年營業收入按年升9.5%至7,217.46億元人民幣,高於本網綜合4間券商預測上限的7,090億元人民幣。當中淨利息收入按年升6%至5,779.87億元人民幣,手續費及傭金淨收入按年升8%至803.29億元人民幣。淨利息收益率爲2.12%,淨利差1.96%,兩者均按年下降8個基點。農行去年底不良貸款率1.43%,按年下降0.14個百分點。
【季績優預期 不良率下跌】
摩根大通發表報告指,農行去年第四季淨利潤按年升8%,高於該行預期6%,去年盈利增長12%,與交行、中行及建行相同,適勝於工行。正面而言,農行非利息收入按年升32%,主要受投資收入,以及不良貸款比率下降與信貸損失撥備率改善帶來的資產改善所推動。但從負面而言,農行淨利息收入因淨息差季度收窄遜預期,經營開支亦高於預期,導致撥備前經營溢按年跌2%。該行料市場對業績反應正面,基於農行短期盈利增長,亦認爲農行估值不高,預測市賬率爲0.38倍及預測股本回報率11%。該行維持對農行「中性」投資評級及目標價3.05元。
海通國際指,農行去年撥備成本增長少於市場預測,意味資產質素較市場預期爲佳,去年第四季不良貸款比率按季改善5個基點,亦低於市場預期的1.47%,其中零售不良貸款比率升2個基點至0.51%;企業不良貸款比率跌27點子至2.04%。撥備覆蓋比率及撥備與貸款比率均高於預期,意味緩衝穩固。該行亦提及,農行去年派息20.68分人民幣,高於市場預期,派息比率維持31%以上,呈輕微改善。農行核心一級資本充足率按季升26點子至11.44%,亦高於市場預期的11.02%。該行維持對農行「優於大市」評級。
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本網最新綜合3間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
海通國際│優於大市│4.25元
野村│買入│3.58元
摩根大通│中性│3.05元
券商│觀點
海通國際│收入及盈利勝預期,不良貸款比率跌,撥備覆蓋率增
野村│去年業績略勝預期
摩根大通│季度盈利勝預期,但撥備前經營溢利遜預期
(fc/w)
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