機構：當前是投資於港股高股息策略的良機
來源：宇觀策略
高股息股票的概況與歷史表現
高股息股票一般集中在藍籌公司，盈利能力突出，現金流量充足。一般來說高股息率指數與港股市場表現同漲同跌，不過市場較差或存在不確定性時高股息策略表現更好。長期來看，若考慮資本利得以及股利再投資的收益，恆生高股息率指數總回報自2014年以來便長期優於恆指。
從美林時鐘視角看高股息股票的投資價值
恆生高股息率指數相對恆生指數的表現與實際利率成反向關係，在大多數時間段的表現也優於國債。實際利率下行期間，資本回報率下滑，高股息資產的股息的溢價率上升，高股息資產相對於其他資產的配置價值凸顯，更有機會獲得超額收益。同時，恆生高股息板塊股息率長期高於國債收益率，其收益能力也顯著高於國債。
從美林時鐘的視角來看，未來恆生高股息率指數有望取得不錯的表現。我們參考美林時鐘，研究了不同經濟環境下高股息策略的回報。歷史來看，在滯脹期與復甦期，高股息策略通常會有不錯的表現。目前國內處於「類滯脹」到復甦的過渡時期，未來一段時間內高股息策略或許是不錯的投資選擇。
高股息、低估值，當前是投資於港股高股息策略的良機
高股息板塊估值處於歷史低位，股息率處於歷史高位，低市盈率低市淨率高股息率下高股息板塊收益較好。通過計算市盈率、市淨率、股息率不同分位下的投資勝率和持有不同期限下的收益能力，當前低市盈率、低市淨率、高股息率情況下高股息策略未來的潛在收益較好。隨着「穩增長」政策發力中國國內經濟企穩，國內貨幣政策維持寬鬆狀態，預計港股較低的估值水平有望得到修復，高股息率指數有望隨着港股市場而上行。同時，自下而上來看，高股息比較集中的地產、銀行等行業也有望修復，這對於高股息策略也將是支撐。
高股息策略投資組合的構建
高股息組合收益率與股息率、分紅穩定性、市值、換手率、加權方式、調倉方式等都有一定關係，但組合構建過程要考慮到實際交易需求。我們以港股通作爲資產池，採用與恆生高股息率指數相似的方法構建組合，整體來看，新組合的收益率要顯著高於恆生高股息率指數的表現。
風險提示：1、宏觀經濟不及預期；2、公司分紅大幅變動；3、行業修復不及預期。
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