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光大證券:“十四五”現代能源體系規劃發佈,我國能源結構轉型正當時
格隆匯 03-25 08:50

本文來自:光大證券研究,作者:趙乃迪

《“十四五”現代能源體系規劃》發佈,我國能源結構轉型進入重要窗口期

碳中和背景下,全球能源格局正在重塑,我國也步入了能源結構轉型重要窗口期。“十三五”時期,我國能源結構持續優化,低碳轉型成效顯著,“十四五”時期是我國為實現“雙碳”目標打好基礎的關鍵時期。3月22日國家發改委發佈《“十四五”現代能源體系規劃》,《規劃》指出,傳統能源領域強調能源安全,保障國內化石能源供給。並且要持續推進能源低碳轉型,提升能源系統效率。新能源領域大力發展風光水核,加強太陽能、地熱能、生物質能等可再生能源在重點工業領域的應用。

原油中短期不可替代,堅守能源安全發展戰略

我們認為,從全世界範圍來看,原油是重要的化工原料,其重要用途短期內無法被取代,故原油的化工需求短期內將保持增長;全世界燃油車保有量依然很大,故成品油燃料需求短期內將保持穩定;我國原油進口依存度較高,保障能源安全成為我國原油企業的重要任務。因此,“大宗之王”(原油)的戰略地位中短期內不可替代。在能源轉型過程中,我國極其重視能源供應安全。2021年12月的中央經濟工作會議指出,傳統能源逐步退出要建立在新能源安全可靠的替代基礎上。要確保能源供應,大企業特別是國有企業要帶頭保供穩價。要深入推動能源革命,加快建設能源強國。此外,IEA在《世界能源展望2021》中預測,全球原油需求將於2025年達到97百萬桶/日的峯值,在2030年前基本保持穩定,最終於2050年降低到77百萬桶/日。

能源結構轉型窗口期,大力發展“風”“光”“鋰”“氫”“氣”

由於我國“富煤、貧油、少氣”的資源稟賦,我國能源結構中煤炭佔比過半,煤炭燃燒和發電造成嚴重的碳排放問題。基於我國能源國情,我們重點關注風光發電、鋰電、氫能、天然氣等能源轉型主線:1)風光發電:2001-2019年,煤炭消費造成了我國近80%的CO2排放量,燃煤發電是煤炭的重要需求領域,“雙碳”目標下,大力發展風光發電替代燃煤發電,是我國碳減排的有效路徑;2)鋰電、氫能:從石油需求結構的角度出發,我們認為新能源汽車的發展將有效減少石油消費。如果鋰電、氫燃料電池等新能源車對燃油車實現完全替代,將使交通、運輸、倉儲業的石油消費量佔比大幅降低,從而在不影響必需的工業消費的前提下,降低我國石油的總消費量;3)天然氣:其單位碳排放較低,是一種碳友好型化石能源。天然氣作為最清潔的化石能源,相比於非化石能源,在供應穩定性和獲取成本方面具有較大的優勢,因此若要在中短期內減緩碳排放的上升速度乃至實現碳達峯,在發展非化石能源的同時,也必須大力推動天然氣的使用。

風險分析:疫情擴散風險,地緣政治風險,頁巖油產量增速過快風險,政策力度不及預期風險。

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