建銀國際:港股「政策底」基本確認 一個月內上望22,000至23,000點
建銀國際報告指,美國今年加息以及縮表將對香港市場以及其他新興市場帶來資金外流壓力,這種風險仍然值得警惕。但是,由於美聯儲加息已經從2021年開始討論收緊政策,其他發達國家也在2021年已經開始收緊政策,這些因素可能已經提前被市場充分消化了。因此,在短期內本次加息25基點,將對市場有個去除懸疑的效應,聯儲局沒有意外「放鷹」,將支持股市短期的反彈。根據該行對歷史加息周期的研究,股市通常在加息周期早期表現仍然相對偏強,而在加息中後期開始出現更大的風險。
該行提出策略建議,國務院金融穩定發展委員會(金穩會)和聯儲議息會分別穩定了市場的政策預期和流動性預期,未來俄烏衝突如未顯著惡化升級,邊際影響亦將趨於收斂(近期原油價格亦已大幅回落),港股的政策底部可以基本確認,結合考慮當前港股估值水平及超賣程度,很可能也將成為這輪熊市的長期底部。建議積極把握右側交易機會,一個月內的恆指估值修復目標預計在22,000至23,000點左右。行業配置上,反彈初期可優選彈性較大、嚴重超賣的科技、受益於穩增長政策、財務穩健的地產和基建龍頭,之後逐步轉向業績表現更為穩健的金融、電信和內需股,逢高減持資源、能源和航運股。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
![](/hk/assets/image/code.84ab0b.png)
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.