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中銀香港(02388.HK):聯儲局或在今年餘下六次會議中各加息25基點
阿思達克 03-17 14:57
美國聯儲局宣布上調聯邦基金利率目標範圍25個基點,至介乎0.25%至0.5%,是自2018年12月以來首次加息。中銀香港(02388.HK)首席經濟學家鄂志寰認為,聯儲局有機會在今年餘下六次會議中,每次加息25個基點,而明年加息的步伐將會放緩,面臨地緣政治、供給側因素持續帶來的高通脹,聯儲局不會在短期內過快地大幅提高息率,以避免美國經濟硬著陸,縮表有機會於今年下半年啟動,因此明後兩年的聯邦基金利率會略高於其2.4%的長期均衡水平。 香港金管局根據預設公式將基準利率上調至0.75%。鄂志寰指出,鑒於目前香港銀行體系流動性充裕,短期內銀行調高最優惠利率的誘因有限,自環球金融危機後,香港利率的調整慢於美國利率調整,香港最優惠存款利率或在美國加息四至五次後,才有機會進行調整,近期調整最優存款利率的機率不大。
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