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渣打:聯儲局有空間於未來1至2次議息將加息幅度加碼
阿思達克 03-17 12:56
渣打大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆認為,俄烏戰事令市場對美國加息次數預期減少,但近2日市場預期加息次數的回升,認為聯儲局有空間於未來1至2次議息會議後,將每次加息幅度加碼,另外聯儲局亦無排除日後每次加息加50點子以及縮表。 劉健恆表示,對於下半年美國有無空間收緊貨幣有疑問,例如美國通脹會否在下半年持續或回落,認為今年美國會加息4次,不會加息7次,目前俄烏戰事對經濟的影響較地區性,目前該行只是下調了歐洲經濟預測,若戰事持續,不排除增加對需求的干擾。 劉健恆表示,香港會否加息視乎本地資金充足性,相信要待港美息差擴大至不利港匯,香港才會跟隨美國加息。內地方面,劉健恆預計,今個月有機會下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點,第二季有機會下調中期借貸便利(MLF)等政策利率。 渣打香港及大灣區金融市場主管曾繼志表示,聯儲局今次加息幅度不見對市場有恐慌性影響,聯儲局表明不認為加息對經濟有巨大影響,穩定了市場信心,今早港匯市場穩定,股市也有好表現。
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