野村:餐飲業或再受疫情影響 較看好九毛九(9922.HK)看淡海底撈(6869.HK)
野村發研報表示,海底撈(6869.HK)、九毛九(9922.HK)旗下太二、及百勝中國(9987.HK)在深圳分別擁有約47、40、40家餐廳,佔其各自總門店數的約4%、11%、3.5%。雖然封城只會持續7天,但預計深圳將在14天內銷售較為低迷,因為當地消費者需要時間來重獲信心以恢復正常活動。不過,由於深圳的貢獻仍然很小,深圳的封城對百勝中國及海底撈銷售的影響應該很少。該行將海底撈、九毛九、及百勝中國的2022財年銷售預測分別下調0.1%、11%、及0.2%,同時將盈利預測分別下調26.4%、19.2%、及8.1%。
該行預期,九毛九的太二品牌將受到深圳封城的相對較大的影響,但基於其相對穩定的原材料成本,及預期當新冠疫情穩定時,休閒餐飲運營商將比快餐店更快反彈,九毛九仍然是該行首選。該行將集團2021至22財年盈測下調12至19%,並下調目標價至18.1港元。而百勝中國強大的外賣能力可以幫助公司在中國收緊防疫措施期間捉住不斷增長的外賣需求。
該行續表示,仍然不看好海底撈,因為在疫情期間火鍋和大型團體聚並不太受歡迎。該行將集團評級上調至“中性”,下調目標價至12.6港元,該行認為,集團的運營趨勢或仍將遜於同業,並且基於更保守的營業額估算,該行將2022財年的盈測下調26%。儘管集團最近宣佈了高級管理人員的變動,但該行更傾向於公司的戰略變革,以解決大幅減少的營業額、關閉300家門店後的運營改善及吸引年輕顧客的潛在戰略。
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