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中金(03908.HK)王漢鋒:市場正接近「情緒底」
阿思達克 03-10 16:00
中金(03908.HK)董事總經理兼首席策略師王漢鋒表示,中國市場已確認「政策底」,預測目前已接近「情緒底」,並將於第二季度左右,隨着穩增長政策繼續發力,有望見經濟「增長底」。他認爲在全球波動中,中國市場中期可能會相對有韌性,而「穩增長」仍是主線,高估值成長股的入場時機,仍有待通脹風險邊際緩解。 自內地加強對科技互聯網的監管,導致市場不穩定,他強調現時已過了監管力度最嚴厲的時段,即使兩會提及到要求互聯網平臺降費支持中小企,只屬執行層面變化,而近期中央強調數字經濟要做大做強,顯示出當局對科技互聯網行業的態度已變。 惟他認爲外界不能忽視背後的基本層面變化,自去年初中國數個互聯網平臺於社區團購展開激烈競爭,導致發生「百團大戰」事件,意即社區團購滲透至街頭巷尾,從側面說明可見,互聯網下沉走到最細枝末節,其滲透率已達極高,流量紅利見頂。 董事總經理兼首席宏觀分析師張文朗相信,中國今年設「5.5%左右」較市場預期高的增長目標,能夠完全實現。他解釋,隨着今年中國加緊推動穩增長政策後,市民收入有望改變,加上當局執行疫情防控政策取得成效,並有助餐飲、旅遊等消費行業重回軌道。(ca/u) ~
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