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從純粹地緣避險到更深層次的通脹擔憂:市場邏輯開始變了?

截止週二收盤,避險資產美債的價格連續第二日和美股同步下跌,各週期美債收益率則再度與大宗商品價格同步上漲。

其中,指標10年期美債收益率單日大幅上漲了12.2個基點至1.864%,2年期美債收益率上漲8.7個基點報1.637%,5年期美債收益率漲12.3個基點報1.807%,30年期美債收益率漲8.9個基點報2.234%。

不少業內人士表示,美債收益率近期在避險環境下走出的反常升勢,明顯受到了大宗商品價格最新漲勢的提振,同時這也凸顯出了美聯儲在下週政策會議之前面臨的通脹挑戰。

30年期通脹關聯國債的所謂盈虧平衡通脹率週二攀升至了2013年以來的最高水平。該數字反應的是債券市場認爲未來30年消費物價的平均年度漲幅。30年期盈虧平衡通脹率一度上漲4.6個基點至2.5081%,超過了2021年11月的高點。

“通貨膨脹很瘋狂,”AmeriVet Securities的美國利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示。“無論戰事情況發展如何,美聯儲都將需要加息。”

美國總統拜登週二宣佈禁止進口俄羅斯石油和其他能源,英國也宣佈將在2022年底之前逐步停止從俄羅斯進口石油和石油產品,以向俄羅斯施壓,這導致國際油價週二進一步大幅攀升。

除了美債收益率外,歐債收益率隔夜也全線走高。德國10年期國債收益率一度上漲14個基點,至0.138%,之後回落至0.11%。衡量歐元區長期市場通脹預期的一個關鍵指標跳升至2013年底以來的最高水平,因在歐洲央行會議前兩天,市場對物價壓力上升感到不安。

安盛投資管理全球戰略債券基金經理Nick Hayes表示,與所有市場一樣,債券市場也在試圖確定,高通脹還是高油價可能導致增長放緩的因素,哪個更重要。很明顯,上週的情況都與增長放緩有關——隨着增長放緩,債券收益率應該會降低。但隨着焦點轉向通脹動態,以及這對週四歐洲央行利率決議的影響,國債收益率開始走高。

Seaport Global Holdings董事總經理Tom di Galoma指出,“隔夜債市出現拋售還有一個原因是有報道稱,歐盟將發行近1萬億美元的債券,以加強歐洲的能源和國防行業。”

而隨着金融市場尤其是債市的交投邏輯,逐漸從俄烏衝突爆發之初的純粹避險,過渡到當前相對更深層次的通脹擔憂,本週四的歐洲央行利率決議和美國2月CPI數據的表現,無疑將顯得更爲關鍵。

歐洲央行此前縮減刺激措施的種種計劃,如今都已被俄烏衝突一事所顛覆。歐洲央行決策官員將於週四開會,勢必得應對以充處於紀錄高位的通脹,新危機不但對通脹構成威脅,也將推動通脹進一步走高。Principal Global Investors首席策略師Seema Shah表示,“在所有主要央行當中,歐洲央行所遭遇的難題最大。”

在美國方面,任何通脹可能出現加速攀升的跡象,也將導致美聯儲在未來進一步加快加息的步伐。本週一,全美普通汽油均價觸及每加侖4.173美元,創下歷史新高。

DoubleLine Capital聯合創始人、有着“新債王”之稱的岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)週二表示,美國通脹率今年可能接近10%,這一歷史水平突顯了美聯儲需要積極收緊貨幣政策,即使烏克蘭境內的戰事正造成新的不確定性。

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