《大行報告》中金:港股面臨疫情疊加地緣風險短期擾動 關注穩定增長及高息價值股
中金髮表報告表示,香港特區疫情近期明顯走高、新增確診仍在快速上行通道、死亡和重症率偏高,指短期時衝擊較大使得醫療資源承壓。該行指從快速爆發到見頂一般持續三至四周左右,即便是疫苗接種比例更低的南非也是如此。上述規律與港大醫學院上月底的模型推演的結論類似,該模型預計本輪疫情高點可能出現在3月中附近(日均新增18萬人),但死亡和重症可能會相對滯後。
該行指,短期而言,疫情升級疊加防控措施加強,都難免對經濟活動特別是線下消費造成一定擾動,但據歐美多輪疫情經驗看,此種擾動更多爲瞬時衝擊,待疫情緩解後將逐步修復。不過,此次疫情適逢地緣風險和美聯儲加息臨近(3月15至16日),因此需要關注潛在疊加影響。近期港幣兌美元持續走弱,目前已接近弱方保證。
中金錶示,從市場角度,近期疫情升級、疊加地緣風險和監管等因素,共同打壓了市場情緒和成交活躍度(港股日均成交約1,200億港元),市場明顯回調並基本回吐年初以來漲幅,估值再度回到此前低位,其中疫情受損板塊,如線下零售、博彩和商業地產更爲承壓。不過,考慮到港股市場多數實爲中資公司,對疫情和外部地緣風險敞口相對較小,因此該行認爲也無需在當前已經較低的估值水平上更爲悲觀,更不用說國內穩增長仍在持續推進。
近期更多因情緒驅動的拋售,反而有助於市場快速消化其他各種不確定性,達到「情緒底」。因此,雖然仍存在短期擾動,但該行仍然看好港股的中期前景。後續更多穩增長政策出臺,不僅將有助於吸引南向資金流入,也會提升整體風險偏好。配置上,建議關注兼具穩增長和高股息的部分價值股(如金融和上遊週期)以及盈利估值匹配的優質成長股。
而該行亦列出最新海外中資股策略首選組合,海螺水泥(00914.HK)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、國壽(02628.HK)、中國建築國際(03311.HK)、國航(00753.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)、石藥(01093.HK)、海信家電(00921.HK)、安踏體育(02020.HK)及敏華控股(01999.HK)。
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