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俄烏衝突不礙預期拉滿!華爾街大行:美聯儲今年還加息7次

儘管交易員和一些同行降低了加息預期,華爾街最大的幾家銀行預計美聯儲今年將加息7次。美國銀行和高盛集團仍預計,美聯儲將在年底前將基準利率從目前的0-0.25%區間上調至2%,摩根大通預計到2023年初將達到2%。他們的主要觀點是:飆升的通脹將迫使美聯儲採取行動。

當然,俄烏衝突可能會抑制全球經濟增長,但其也會進一步推高原材料價格,推動消費價格進一步上漲。

高盛駐紐約策略師Praveen Korapathy表示:“經濟正常化的基本原理尚未改變。如果經濟增長只是遭到小幅衝擊,而通脹仍處於高位,這將使美聯儲的權衡變得更糟,但我不認爲這會讓他們袖手旁觀。”

其次,智通財經曾報道,高盛集團上調了美國通脹預期,並預計美聯儲2023年的加息幅度將超過此前預期。高盛經濟學家Jan Hatzius預計,到2022年底,通脹將達到3.7%,而此前的預測是3.1%。高盛預計,到2023年底,通脹漲幅將從之前的2.2%上漲至2.4%。

Hatzius表示:“2022 年的通脹預期非常高,應該會爲在今年內剩餘的七次FOMC會議上穩定加息(預計今年會加息七次)提供一個簡單的理由。鑑於我們對2023年的更高通脹預測,我們現在預計明年還有四次加息(之前是三次),導致終端利率略高於2.75-3%。”

利率交易員則有不同的看法。隨着對俄羅斯的制裁給全球經濟增長前景帶來壓力,他們近幾天降低了對美聯儲收緊政策可能性的押注。貨幣市場對美聯儲3月份加息的預期已從俄烏衝突全面升級前的50個基點降至25個基點,交易員現在預計聯邦基金利率最終將達到1.7%的峯值,遠低於美聯儲對2.5%的長期預期。

相反,道明證券下調了美聯儲3月的加息幅度預期,並且預計部分加息將推至明年。

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