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渣打料內地今年GDP增長目標或設於5.5% 人行本月全面降準50個基點
阿思達克 03-03 09:26
渣打全球研究發表報告,指本周六(5日)全國兩會即將拉開序幕。鑒於穩增長是今年政府工作重中之重,因此預計政府或將今年GDP增長目標設在5.5%,並將通脹目標繼續設定在3%左右。而財政政策和貨幣政策有望進一步放鬆,以扭轉近期投資動能疲弱勢頭,監管政策有望持續微調以為經濟增長服務。 渣打仍然預測2022年中國GDP增長率為5.3%,並且考慮到歷年實際增長均超出官方目標,預計今年實際增長有可能高出這一預期。 另外,報告指央行貨幣政策立場適度放鬆以來,目前適度加槓桿正在進行中。社會融資規模增速或穩定在10%至11%,高於測算的名義GDP的增速8%至9%。該行預計,作為政策發力適當靠前的組成部分,3月央行將全面降準50個基點,並在4月下調MLF(中期借貸便利)利率10個基點。
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