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俄烏危機下“至暗時刻”已過!小摩列出六大理由

摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席股票策略師Marko Kolanovic表示,俄烏危機下股市最初的下跌可能會最終被證明“已經觸底”。

他在最新的一份報告中表示,隨着地緣政治緊張局勢繼續升級,市場波動仍將加劇,但“風險資產的最壞時期可能已經過去,這種波動應該會給投資者帶來巨大的機會”。

“俄羅斯/烏克蘭危機將繼續引發市場的動盪,但對企業盈利的直接影響應該是很小的。鑑於大宗商品價格上漲對通脹、增長和消費者的影響,間接風險更爲巨大。然而,危機中的一線希望是,這可能會迫使美聯儲對市場進行鴿派的重新評估。”他寫道。

Kolanovic是華爾街少數幾個正確預測了2020年3月觸底及反彈的人士之一。他在2021年曾擔任該行的宏觀量化和衍生品戰略的負責人,後被晉升爲首席全球市場策略師。他在報告中列出了風險資產環境將好轉的六大原因:

1. 宣佈的制裁雖然嚴厲,但對經濟增長的影響似乎有限。

“並非所有俄羅斯銀行都被Swift除名,理由或許是這樣做將使它們無法爲俄羅斯的能源買單,從而導致歐洲出現嚴重的能源短缺。此外,儘管俄羅斯央行的大部分資產被凍結,但該央行仍可動用約2000億美元的在岸黃金和中國外匯儲備。更廣泛地說,對俄羅斯的直接敞口似乎相對可控。”

2.到目前爲止,能源價格上漲得到了遏制。

“自2021年年中以來,天然氣價格的上漲至少被各種財政和監管措施部分抵消,這些措施可能會繼續緩衝對經濟增長的衝擊。實際上,這些能源補貼代表着歐洲的財政刺激。增加國防開支,比如德國宣佈的那些,代表着額外的刺激措施。”

3.央行的強硬態度可能會因地緣政治風險而有所緩和。

“在高於趨勢增長率的情況下,由於勞動力市場迅速收緊,各國央行做出了強硬轉變,這種轉變不太可能出現全面逆轉。不過,相對於近期地緣政治緊張局勢升級引發的任何額外通脹風險,他們可能更看重經濟增長,從而爲近期信心受到的任何打擊提供緩衝。”

4. 衝突不太可能蔓延到北約成員國的其他東歐國家。

“鑑於長期佔領烏克蘭將給俄羅斯帶來的高昂代價,這場戰爭最可能出現的情況可能是比人們擔心的更快得到解決。”

5. 美國科技股接近超賣狀態。

“納斯達克期貨頭寸減少,QQQ ETF空頭頭寸增加,表明美國科技領域存在超賣狀況。”

6. 油價上漲應會通過主權財富基金積累,爲股市創造一些支持性資金流入。

“今年,油價上漲應會通過主權財富基金增加積累和石油公司增加股票回購,爲股市創造支撐性資金流動,至少在一定程度上緩衝了股市受到的衝擊。”

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