機構:外部衝擊不改港股中期向好趨勢,關注高股息標的
機構表示,雖然存在潛在短期擾動,但仍然看好港股中期前景。板塊方面,建議短期關注「穩增長」受益板塊,優質成長標的中期也值得關注。另外,受益於國內債券收益率下降的高股息標的以及因美國即將加息而受益的香港本地銀行板塊也值得關注。
在歐洲地緣政治局勢升溫背景下,上週海外中資股市場大幅下跌。雖然A股市場也未能倖免,但海外中資股市場遭受的負面影響尤爲明顯;而且儘管美股市場後來企穩反彈,但香港反彈力度相對疲弱,這也與其對外部風險偏好擾動更加敏感、同時流動性環境相對偏弱等特徵有關。
雖然海外中資股市場表現令人失望,但我們也需要提示投資者注意以下幾點:1)地緣政治局勢升溫帶來的影響通常停留在情緒面,且並不持久,這一點可以從上週四和週五美股市場V型強勁反彈中得到印證;2)對中國整體和香港市場的直接影響較爲有限,除非局勢進一步升級惡化;3)不同於其它市場,香港股市本身估值水平就明顯較低,進一步明顯下跌的空間可能有限。更重要的是,我們認爲近期單純因風險偏好驅動下的市場拋售反而有助於快速消化市場所面臨的其它不確定性,使得港股市場再度回到較有吸引力的水平(當前港股市場已經接近超賣區域,且賣空成交比率也再度攀升至17%左右)。
短期來看,我們預計國內監管和海外不確定性仍然是市場面臨的不利因素,在塵埃落定前可能仍會導致市場震盪盤整。但是,我們認爲也無需在當前較低水平上進一步過於悲觀,更不用說國內穩增長還在持續推進。因此整體來看,雖然存在潛在短期擾動,但我們仍然看好港股中期前景。
投資建議:考慮到國內外不確定性影響市場情緒,我們判斷市場短期將出現波動。但是,我們認爲有利的政策環境和較低的估值水平將爲港股市場帶來更多機會。
板塊方面,我們建議短期關注「穩增長」受益板塊,如部分金融、地產板塊與相關產業鏈以及受益於上遊價格回落和政策支持力度加大的中下遊消費板塊。優質成長標的中期也值得關注。另外,受益於國內債券收益率下降的高股息標的以及因美國即將加息而受益的香港本地銀行板塊也值得關注。
綜合來看,我們建議超配傳媒與互聯網、汽車、部分電商、消費者服務、食品飲料與餐飲、生物科技和中資銀行;低配上遊煤炭、原材料和部分交通運輸等。長期而言,我們仍然建議關注產業升級、消費升級以及國貨消費品牌崛起等主題性機會。
重點關注事件:1)中國經濟增長與政策變化;2)美國上市中概股方面監管政策變化;3)疫情變化;4)中美關係。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.