植耀輝: 俄烏局勢牽動市場 恆指恐續試底
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股繼續大幅波動,雖然上週五(25日)三大指數均出現強勁反彈,但過去數日俄烏局勢急轉直下,恐怕對全球金股匯市場帶來重大不確定因素。
至於港股,受多個利淡消息拖累,恆指上週累跌達到1,560點或6.4%,收報22,767點。地緣局勢加上外圍股市急挫,利淡投資氣氛,加上多隻藍籌業績未見驚喜,例如港交所(00388.HK)績後便持續受沽壓,上週二公佈業績之恆生銀行(00011.HK)一週累跌更達到超過10.7%,事實上,上週成份股中亦只得百威亞太(01876.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)、中電(00002.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)5只股份錄得升幅,除百威亞太升幅達7.6%外,其餘股份升幅僅介乎0.24%至2.64%;跌幅最大則爲阿裏巴巴(09988.HK),累跌達11.9%,濠賭股金沙中國(01928.HK)亦跌11.6%。
值得一提的是,經過上週急跌,恆指、國指及科技指數年初至今均錄得跌幅,分別累跌2.69%、2.98%及9.85%。
整體大市氣氛依然不樂觀,特別是俄烏局勢極之不明朗,情況會否進一步惡化將是未來最大變數。另外本週尚有不少事項值得關注,包括中美經濟數據、內地兩會召開以及續有不少企業公佈業績。預期市況將相當波動,不過若俄烏局勢進一步惡化,則恐怕恆指或會進一步下試22,000點甚至更低水平。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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關注美國經濟數據以及中國兩會行情
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,市場繼續觀望俄烏局勢發展,烏克蘭總統同意於白羅斯邊境附近對俄談判,美股上週五(25日)全線向上,道指反彈逾800點,不過道指期貨今早(28日)回吐五百點,意味市場未敢過於樂觀。展望本週,美國將公佈重磅非農就業數據,此爲聯儲局3月議息前最後一項反映工資變化的數據,利率期貨顯示3月份一口氣加息0.5釐的機會率已回落至不足10%。OPEC+週三(3月2日)亦舉行例會,留意油產國會否在油價處於100美元以上的水平改變增產策略。本港方面,由於疫情嚴峻,(敘)福樓(01978.HK)今起暫停所有餐廳營運,大家樂(00341.HK)旗下大家樂快餐及一粥面分店亦將全日暫停提供堂食服務,飲食及零售業最壞時刻未過難有炒作空間。投資者轉爲留意本週舉行的兩會行情,預料內地將以穩增長目標爲地產及基建等板塊作出投資。
港股技術走勢方面,恆指上週跌穿1月及2月形成的小雙頂的頸線位置23,469點,指數雖然偏離10天線達1,200點,不過卻未有出現底背馳之信號,以量度跌幅計,指數有可能下試22,000點心理關口之水平。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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