《大行報告》瑞銀料倘烏克蘭事件影響消退 美股可彈3%
瑞銀發表報告,因應俄羅斯進攻烏克蘭更新美股模型,顯示事件已取代實質利率成為美股大市、行業及回報模式最主要影響來源。縱使美股近期受壓,該行對美股維持正面看法,並料事件影響消化後反彈,基於美股去年第四季盈利再度顯著勝預期,市場對利率更具韌性且已反映十年期國債高於2厘,美國經濟數據堅韌及超出預期,估值在跌市下已更便宜,標普500指數預測市盈率已跌至19倍,年內已減少11%。
報告亦指,經模型分析,烏克蘭事件一旦降溫,美股可反彈3%。假設布蘭特期油價格在供應憂慮紓緩下跌一成至每桶85美元,股市將獲略外2.5%提振。報告亦總結1960年美股標普500指數經歷的16次顯著地緣政治事件,事件導致指數半年跌幅的中位數僅為4%。
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