渣打將香港今年經濟增長預測下調至1.2%
渣打發表報告,將香港2022年GDP增長預測從2.3%,下調至1.2%,主因近期新型冠狀病毒病例急增,以及再收緊社交距離措施,而因低基數效應,將明年預測從2.5%上調至3.2%。
報告指,即使第五波疫情未爆發,已預測第一季香港經濟只會按年增0.8%,惟根據現時情況,第一季經濟或收縮1.3%。而下月進行的全民檢測可能會出現大規模的隔離,相信為第五波疫情高峰,估計5月至6月可逐步放寬社交距離限制,因此預計第二季GDP或可收復第一季的失地,下半年將有所回升。
渣打認為,新一份財政預算案公布派一萬元消費券,應有助本港經濟於下半年復甦,但進一步延遲與內地通關仍會拖累香港經濟。若今年仍未能與內地通關,渣打認為政府預期今年全年經濟增長2%至3.5%屬過於樂觀。
報告提到,只要政府堅持「動態清零」,為防止輸入個案,今年大部份時間將仍維持嚴例的入境限制,高利率和疲弱的增長預期,意味樓市將經歷更長的疲弱期。
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