植耀輝: 美股絕地反擊倒升 港股反彈惟力度有限
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(24日)再度大幅波動,承接外圍股市急跌,美股一度急挫850點,納指更由高位計調整超過20%,不過科技股見有資金吸納,其後更率先倒升;道指跌幅亦不斷收窄,到尾市亦順利由跌轉升,納指升幅更超過3%。最終道指收報33,223點,上升92點或0.3%。標普500指數亦升63點或1.5%。納指升436點或3.3%,收報13,473點。
至於港股昨日急跌,俄羅斯向烏克蘭展開軍事行動,消息即時震散金融市場。美期急跌亦進一步拖低港股,恆指收市大跌758點,收報22,901點,多隻藍籌創至少一年新低,當中包括阿里系。資源股則見資金追捧,金價上揚,刺激金股逆市做好,SPDR金ETF(02840.HK)便上升2.7%至1,417元。
事實上,近期除地緣局勢外,新經濟股接連出現不利消息及傳聞而重挫,早前強勢之金融股如友邦(01299.HK)等亦顯著下跌,加上公司業績未見驚喜,恆指亦因此「無運行」,單計本周恆指已累跌超過1,400點矣,年初至今升幅亦已全數蒸發。由於相關負面因素短期內難解,相信港股仍會維持尋底格局,後市或會進一步考驗年內低位22,709點支持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指跌穿小雙頂的頸線位置或有更深調整
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(24日)美股上演過山車行情,俄烏正式開戰,道指早段最多急挫近900點,曾步入技術性調整。但美國表明不會在烏克蘭與俄國交戰,紓緩市場氣氛,三大指數全線收復失地,標指及納指分別收升1.5%及3.3%。美聯儲多名官員表示,參考過往經驗,美國對俄實施經濟制裁後對本地影響有限,無阻3月份加息策略,目前市場預計3月份只會加息0.25厘,加息0.5厘的機會率只得約18%。阿里(09988.HK)上季營收2,425.8億元人民幣(下同),略差過預期的2,449.12億元;不過經調整淨利潤446.24億元,好過預期的421.76億元;阿里預期今季GMV增長仍然強韌,股價昨日先創52周新低,投資者需先行觀望股價能否重返108元水平以守住橫行區間作上落格局。
港股技術走勢方面,恆指昨日跌穿1月及2月形成的小雙頂的頸線位置23,469點,指數雖然偏離10天線達1,200點,不過卻未有出現底背馳之信號,以量度跌幅計,指數有可能下試22,000點心理關口之水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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