煤炭股逆市上漲 俄烏衝突升級 或抬升國際煤價中樞
格隆匯2月24日丨煤炭股逆市上漲,A股方面,電投能源漲3.11%,廣匯能源漲2.07%,平煤股份、晉控煤業和神火股份等跟漲;港股方面,蒙古能源漲1.94%,伊泰煤炭和中煤能源小漲。中信證券表示,俄烏衝突升級,或抬升國際煤價中樞。據俄羅斯聯邦海關總署數據,2021年俄羅斯煤炭出口總量2.23億噸,佔俄羅斯產量一半以上。按照IEA統計數據,俄羅斯出口煤炭佔全球煤炭進出口份額約15%,其中出口到中國的煤炭約佔1/4,出口到歐洲的煤炭約為1/5。而烏克蘭是煤炭淨進口國。近期俄烏衝突不斷升級,若後續引發戰爭,俄羅斯供應歐洲的天然氣或因戰爭和歐美聯合制裁中斷,短期或將推高歐洲對煤炭和石油的需求,此前歐洲煤炭貿易商已基於此預期囤貨,2021年12月歐盟煤炭進口量同比增長35.1%。同時,國際天然氣價格或因俄羅斯供給的缺席而繼續走高,全球能源價格中樞或繼續抬升。年初以來,歐洲ARA港動力煤現貨價以及澳大利亞紐卡斯爾港動力煤現貨價較去年底價格分別上漲30%/43%


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