《大行報告》摩通料第五波疫情損港銀收入 投資者可候中線吸納機會
摩根大通發表報告,指本港第五波疫情比預期更嚴重,並導致該行進一步下調香港GDP預測,意味著香港銀行在今年上半年可能面臨壓力,但預計這將是一個短期的小問題,對收入和信貸成本方面的影響將比2020年上半年更溫和,並建議投資者可等候中線吸納機會,因為盈利和估值的中期潛在上行空間保持不變。該行首選是中銀香港(02388.HK)和恆生銀行(00011.HK),目標價分別為36元和182元,評級均為「增持」。
摩通表示,本地貸款增長將遜預期。參考2020年的經驗,批發和零售、娛樂和非按揭個人貸款將受到更嚴重的打擊,假設這些細分市場的增長為零,認為疫情對2022年貸款增長和盈利的潛在下行空間分別為0.6至1.6個百分點和0.7%至1.5%。
摩通預計,每日確診個案數目將很快見頂,如果整體情況能夠在3月底得到控制,預計本地銀行資產質素不會顯著惡化。
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