《業績前瞻》券商料恆生(00011.HK)去年稅前溢利升逾3% 聚焦營運及派息指引(更新)
恆生銀行(00011.HK)將於明天(22日)公布去年業績,受期內低息環境持續令淨利息收益率受壓,影響淨利息收入表現,本網綜合6間券商料恆生銀行2021年除稅前溢利介乎171.45億元至202.2億元,較2020年同期194.14億元,按年下跌11.7%至上升4.2%;中位數201.18億元,按年升3.6%。
綜合4間券商預測料恆生銀行2021年每股股息介乎每股5.5元至5.91元,按年持平至升7.5%;中位數5.6元,按年升1.8%。由於市場預期美國及英國央行加息,憧憬恆生銀行未來淨利息收益率會有所改善,但同時關注本港第五波疫情嚴峻對本港經濟及各項業務的影響,關注管理層最新營運及股息指引。
【去年息差受壓 聚焦營運前景】
摩根大通估計恆生銀行去年除稅前溢利200.91億元按年升3.5%,料淨利息收入243.61億元按年跌9.5%,料非利息收入109.38億元按年升19.4%,料預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥降至13.94億元(對比2020年為27.38億元),估淨利息收益率收窄至1.5%,料成本收入比率39.7%,估計去年股本回報為9.6%,料每股全年股息增至5.7元。
花旗料恆生銀行去年每股股息降至5.4元,料其去年下半年純利按年跌10%(按半年跌25%),料或會增加內地業務的撥備,估計恆生銀行去年除稅前溢利183.38億元按年跌5.5%,料淨息差收至1.49%,成本收入比率41.3%,料經調整股本回報率8.5%。
摩根士丹利料恆生銀行2021年除稅前溢利按年跌-11.7%至171.45億元,估計其2021年下半年收入將按年升2.1%,按半年趺0.5%,料淨利息收入按年下滑1.5%,主要受淨息差所拖累。
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本網綜合6間券商料恆生銀行2021年除稅前溢利介乎171.45億元至202.2億元,較2020年同期194.14億元,按年下跌11.7%至上升4.2%;中位數201.18億元,按年升3.6%。
券商│2021年除稅前溢利預測│按年變幅
中金│202.2億元│+4.2%
海通證券│201.72億元│+3.9%
瑞銀│201.44億元│+3.8%
摩根大通│200.91億元│+3.5%
花旗│183.38億元│-5.5%
摩根士丹利│171.45億元│-11.7%
按恆生銀行2020年除稅前溢利194.14億元計
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綜合4間券商預測料恆生銀行2021年每股股息介乎每股5.5元至5.91元,按年持平至升7.5%;中位數5.6元,按年升1.8%。
券商│2021年股息預測│按年變幅
中金│5.91元│+7.5%
摩根大通│5.7元│+3.6%
摩根士丹利│5.5元│持平
花旗│5.4元│-1.8%
按恆生銀行2020年每股派息合共為5.5元計
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