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《大行報告》美銀證券調整內房股目標價 行業首選中國海外、潤地及新城等
美銀證券預測,其所覆蓋的內房股2021年核心盈利平均下降3%,其中國企內房核心盈利增長7%,民營內房核心盈利下降10%,由於庫存減值和工程延誤,民營房企業績可能遠低於預測。 美銀證券將較具實力的內房股目標價上調10%,以反映政策利好因素和併購帶來的上行潛力,並調低陷入困境的內房目標價。該行看好國企中的中國海外發展(00688.HK)和華潤置地(01109.HK),民企中的旭輝(00884.HK)和新城發展(01030.HK),維持世茂(00813.HK)、富力(02777.HK)和碧桂園(02007.HK)的「跑輸大市」評級。目標價和評級詳見另表。 美銀證券估計,融創(01918.HK)、富力、世茂、時代中國(01233.HK)、合景泰富(01813.HK)和雅居樂(03383.HK)不會派末期息股息,除國企外,預計龍湖(00960.HK)、旭輝、碧桂園將保持穩定派息比率。該行估計,行業毛利率可能會在2022至23財年跌至20%以下。 美銀證券認爲,政策在3月的「兩會」前可能會進一步寬鬆,例如降低按揭貸款利率、不良資產管理公司收購項目等,然而,3月和4月的債務到期高峯和疲軟的盈利,也代表屆時波動性會更大。
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