《大行報告》美銀證券:內險股「開門紅」銷售未見火紅 料第二季及三季將改善
美銀髮表研究報告指,內地保險公司陸續公佈1月份保費收入表現,作爲一年之始1月通常是保險公司最重要的月份,佔全年毛保費(GWP)的20%至30%,但期內新華保險(01336.HK)壽險GWP僅增長4%,平安(02318.HK)、中國人壽(02628.HK)及太保(02601.HK)則分別下跌1%、5%及1%。
該行指出,數據並不格外令人失望,更關注的是內險公司的增長質量,預計大多數保險公司的續保保費增長保持穩定、持平或略爲錄得增長,因此預期新業務保費將按年下跌。
內媒預期保險公司開年銷售數據疲弱,1月份新業務價值(VNB)利潤率亦低於去年同期,假設大型保險公司首季首年保費收入增速下滑雙位數,VNB利潤率亦會跟隨下跌雙位數。美銀預計,內險首季VNB增速將按年收窄30%至50%,中國人壽由於低基數,表現將較同業略爲優勝,而太保則由於正進行經紀改革而表現最差。
美銀指,在疫情、宏觀經濟、行業收入增長放緩、市場對長期產品需求疲軟及經紀數量的下降等因素所影響,今年「開局」疲軟爲意料之中,預期第二季及第三季的增長在低基數下將有所改善。
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