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《業績前瞻》券商料恆生(00011.HK)去年稅前溢利升逾3% 聚焦營運及派息指引
阿思達克 02-16 11:59
恆生銀行(00011.HK)將於下周二(22日)公布去年業績,受期內低息環境持續令淨利息收益率受壓,影響淨利息收入表現,本網綜合5間券商料恆生銀行2021年除稅前溢利介乎185.35億元至202.2億元,較2020年同期194.14億元,按年下跌4.5%至上升4.2%;中位數201.44億元,按年升3.8%。 綜合3間券商預測料恆生銀行2021年每股股息介乎每股5.5元至5.91元,按年持平至升7.5%。由於市場預期美國及英國央行加息,憧憬恆生銀行未來淨利息收益率會有所改善,但同時關注本港第五波疫情嚴峻對本港經濟及各項業務的影響,關注管理層最新營運及股息指引。 【去年息差受壓 聚焦營運前景】 摩根大通估計恆生銀行去年除稅前溢利200.91億元按年升3.5%,料淨利息收入243.61億元按年跌9.5%,料非利息收入109.38億元按年升19.4%,料預期信貸損失變動及其他信貸減值提撥降至13.94億元(對比2020年為27.38億元),估淨利息收益率收窄至1.5%,料成本收入比率39.7%,估計去年股本回報為9.6%,料每股全年股息增至5.7元。 花旗料恆生銀行去年每股股息會維持於5.5元,以反映料去年純利按年跌5.8%預期,料去年淨利息收入按年跌11.7%,淨利息收益率收窄至1.49%,並估計手續費及佣金收入按年升逾11%,料恆生截至去年年底的普通股權一級資本比率降至16.5%。 瑞銀本月初發表報告表示,經歷年初至今反彈後,港銀目前估值相當於未來一年預測市賬率1.2倍,仍低於五年平均值即1.3倍。該行繼續看好港銀,港銀淨息差趨勢有望改善,資產質量穩定。在加息周期及穩健宏觀前景下,港銀正進行中期估值重評。 ------------------------------------------ 本網綜合5間券商料恆生銀行2021年除稅前溢利介乎185.35億元至202.2億元,較2020年同期194.14億元,按年下跌4.5%至上升4.2%;中位數201.44億元,按年升3.8%。 券商│2021年除稅前溢利預測│按年變幅 中金│202.2億元│+4.2% 海通證券│201.72億元│+3.9% 瑞銀│201.44億元│+3.8% 摩根大通│200.91億元│+3.5% 花旗│185.35億元│-4.5% 按恆生銀行2020年除稅前溢利194.14億元計 ------------------------------------------ 綜合3間券商預測料恆生銀行2021年每股股息介乎每股5.5元至5.91元,按年持平至升7.5%。 券商│2021年股息預測│按年變幅 中金│5.91元│+7.5% 摩根大通│5.7元│+3.6% 花旗│5.5元│持平 按恆生銀行2020年每股派息合共為5.5元計
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