植耀輝: 地緣局勢緩和美股彈 港股續呈上落市
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(15日)顯著反彈,俄羅斯宣布部分撤軍的消息,市瑒避險情緒稍為降溫,金價及油價回落,科技股則造好。刺激納指急彈,上升348點或2.53%,收報14,139點。道指升幅亦達到422點或1.22%,收報34,988點,標普500指數收報4,471點,上升69點或1.58%。雖然地緣局勢見紓緩,不過短期仍要留意當地局勢變化。另外本週仍有不少公司宣布季績,包括Nvidia(NVDA.US)等,預期仍會對相關板塊走勢有一定啟示。
至於港股方面,昨日走勢未見有太大改善,在中資金融股表現轉差下,拖累恆指下跌200點,收報24,355點。中國人壽(02628.HK)及中國平安(02318.HK)均下跌3.5%,建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)亦分別2.9%及2.7%。
由於隔晚美股出現反彈,加上俄烏局勢有所緩和,情況料有利港股出現反彈,預計大市將繼續於24,000點至25,000點水平上落。另外,內地亦將公布CPI及PPI數據,或會對內地貨幣政策有更多啟示。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指仍能守住24,400點短期上升軌
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(15日)歐美股市全線上揚,美股三大指數升約1%至3%,當中納指表現最強。俄羅斯將部分軍隊撤回基地,俄方指不想開戰,並準備繼續與西方談判,俄烏局勢降溫,支持股市反彈。雖然美國PPI按年上升9.7%,高於預期的9.1%,加深通脹的壓力,美國10年期債息重上2厘高位水平,但未有拖累股市的彈幅。
地緣政局風險降溫,油價從高位回落,油股將相應回調,科技股將有望反彈,不過美國銀行調查指出大部份基金經理仍然看淡科技股,基於加息壓力以及估值隱憂,科技股只宜短線部署。中國公布1月份CPI及PPI,分別按年升0.9%及9.1%,遜預期的1%及9.5%,主要因為食品價格回落,同時工業品價格整體繼續回落。
技術走勢方面,恆指已回補2月9日裂口水平即24,548點,目前屬於三線匯聚的整固格局,14 RSI仍能守住50的中性水平,有條件維持自1月起的短期上升軌。不過需留意關鍵支持位為24,000點,亦即小雙頂的頸線位置。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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