國泰君安：煤價如期回落，持續看好價值發現行情
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：國君煤炭團隊
本報吿導讀：
煤價回落符合預期，板塊表現韌性十足，無需擔憂煤價，淡季不淡或重演；煤炭股投資更應淡化貝塔、探尋阿爾法，高分紅&轉型機會將貫穿全年。
投資要點：
煤價回落符合預期，板塊表現韌性十足。2022.2.14日CCTD環渤海動力現貨Q5500參考價大幅下調至900元/噸，原1020元/噸降幅為120元，與2.12日發改委會議要求港口限價上限一致。受此影響板塊略有調整(CS煤炭-1.25%)，較滬深300相對收益為-0.17%，表現出足夠韌性。
煤價無需擔憂，淡季不淡或重演。發改委對煤價的調控除行政限價外，還需配合產地增產、港口增調等一系列措施，才能力保煤市迴歸平穩。但3月初即將迎來兩會，且第二十屆人民代表大會將於2022年下半年召開，穩字當頭下部分保供產能將退出，且穩增長的強需求也將支撐煤價。此外，印尼動力煤標杆價2月上調至188.4美元/噸(1月為158.5美元)，換算為國內(Q5500)到港成本價已超過1237元/噸，高於電廠採購國內煤成本，預計電廠將更青睞國內煤炭，進一步提升電煤需求。我們判斷伴隨煤價回落至發改委限價區間，煤價將沿區間上限運行。
2022年對煤炭股的投資不應過分糾結煤價和政府調控，發掘阿爾法機會，高分紅+轉型具備更大增持空間。經歷了2021年煤炭市場的大起大落，政府已經有充足的手段維持煤炭價格的穩定，價格大幅超預期上漲帶來的業績高彈性行情在2022年將很難出現，但可以明確的點在於政府對於相對高的煤價具備容忍度，煤炭價格將在高位震盪運行，且長協價同比大幅提升，由此帶動企業的盈利中樞躍升一個台階，價值發現將成為2022年煤炭股投資的主旋律。2022年2月秦皇島動力煤Q5500長協價為725元/噸，新的機制下高長協價格得以維持且同比大幅提升，資本支出-現金流-財務-利潤-分紅”將出現可持續優化，隨着煤企將於2022年3月份後陸續披露年報，高長協、高盈利下的新分紅方案值得期待。此外，國家鼓勵通過興建光伏項目治理採煤沉陷區，我們判斷部分煤炭企業將利用所在地資源獲取綠電項目，轉型有望加速。
投資建議。當前煤炭板塊已處於預期底部，估值明顯偏低，伴隨動力煤長協基準提升、焦煤長協價預計維持高位，資源優質企業具備長期價值，轉型企業具備成長空間，板塊估值提升開啟，1）全年主線：高股息、綠電轉型、成長性煤化工，推薦：中國神華、靖遠煤電、電投能源、兗礦能源、中國旭陽集團、寶豐能源；2）推薦資源優質企業：陝西煤業、淮北礦業、中煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安環能、蘭花科創、盤江股份、平煤股份。
風險提示。宏觀經濟不及預期；煤炭供給維持高位。
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