香港本地股如何應對疫情擾動?立足價值
2022年1月底以來,中國香港遭遇新一輪新冠疫情,情況嚴峻。根據香港特區政府衞生署衞生防護中心2月9日公佈,截至9日零時零分,過去24小時內,經確認的新增新型冠狀病毒的陽性檢測個案共1161宗個案(其中,30宗無症狀感染及943宗狀況待定個案),創歷史新高。
參考日本、新加坡自2021年12月底開始的這一波由Omicron病毒主導的疫情,目前中國香港單日新增確診病例數或仍未到達高點。香港中文大學公共衞生及基層醫療學院助理教授郭健安表示,“從樂觀來看,預計2月底至3月初感染病例可能見頂,在見頂後會在一段時間橫行,之後可能會回落”。
隨着疫情升温,2月8日香港進一步收緊防疫政策。1)香港行政會議通過《預防及控制疾病(規定及指示)(業務及處所)條例》(第599章)的修訂,將受規定的表列處所擴大至23類,新增6項處所,包括宗教場所、商場、百貨公司、超市、街市和髮型屋。上述23類場所將納入2月24日起實施的“疫苗通行證”計劃:12歲或以上人士進入23類表列處所,需要最少接種一劑疫苗。2)此外特區政府還收緊了“限聚令”,公眾地方羣組聚會人數的上限減至2人,私人處所禁止涉及兩個家庭以上的跨家庭聚會,違者可被罰款。
疫情升温、收緊防疫政策以及“通關”推遲,短期可能對香港本地股的業務前景造成負面預期影響,並在一定程度上壓制香港本地股的風險偏好。比如,匯豐、中銀香港等香港本地銀行為全力配合防疫工作,近期發出暫停多家分行服務的相關通知。餐飲、百貨商貿、文化娛樂等行業影響更明顯。
中期而言,我們仍維持年度策略《找尋自信的力量》中對2022年香港本地金融股跌深反彈的觀點。香港本地金融股的海外業務將受益於英國、美國等發達國家加息週期,業績得益於息差擴張,此外,較高的股息率以及回購(buyback)預期也在中期為其股價提供安全墊。
2022年港股投資的核心思路是立足跌深反彈、需要防守反擊,才能夾縫中求生存、趨利避害,積小勝為大勝。對於香港本地股,特別是本地金融股、公用事業、出口相關的核心資產,如果短期遭遇情緒衝擊而震盪,要趁機立足於中期價值而佈局高性價比的個股。
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風險提示
中、美經濟增速下行;美國持續高通脹,美國貨幣政策提前超預期收緊;大國博弈風險;新冠疫情變異超預期。
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