植耀輝: 港股續區間上落 淺談日清(01475.HK)前景
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,傳統藍籌股如匯控(00005.HK)及中移動(00941.HK)近期成為資金追捧對象,前者受惠央行加息,後者則業務及派息穩定而受內地投資者追捧。由於兩者表現理想,亦支持恆指表現,不過初步看25,000點阻力不輕,而且新經濟股等板塊依然未見突破,預期恆指仍只會維持於24,000至25,000點區間上落。
另外,港股疫情又再度惡化,每日感染人數過千,不少朋友亦居家抗疫。根據過往經驗,疫情對零售板塊不利,但對部分如網購或速食食物等公司則較受惠,所以投資者自然將目光集中於「疫情受惠股」,例如香港科技探索(01137.HK)或日清食品(01475.HK)等身上。前者股價自上周起累升超過一成,不過後者卻未見太受惠,一周計股價變化不大。其實日清股價早前曾一度受到加價消息刺激急升,近期又曾出現回調,不過本周食品股又再有好表現,加上該公司母企早前亦已公布截至12月底止三個月之營運數據,亦可跟大家簡單分享一些即食麵市場之狀況。
根據世界即食麵協會(WINA)截至2021年5月數據,2020年全球即食麵總消耗量達到1,166億個,當中最愛即食麵之國家為南韓,人均消耗每年達到80個!若以量計則中港市場總消耗為全球最多,達到463.5億個,以人均計每年約吃掉33個即食麵。當中,以銷售額計,康師傅(00322.HK)、統一(00220.HK)及今麥郎於內地之市佔率分別達到46%、15%及11%,至於日清,根據網上資料,於香港整體市佔率達60%以上,內地市場則佔比不足1.3%,不過在高端市場份額則達到約15%。
至於早前日清食品宣布將於3月起加價(集團特別強調上一次調整價格為十一年前),而康師傅亦早於去年11月起將旗下「經典袋麵系列」加價10%,統一則考慮未來調整價格。但加價其實亦是雙刃劍,雖然可以抵銷原材料價格上升之影響,但由於消費者對方便麵價格亦頗敏感,會否打擊銷情亦要進一步觀察(觀乎內地部分論壇或微博消費者之初步反應似乎相當麻麻)。而從過去經驗,加價後部分企業會選擇加大營銷開支以對沖價帶來之負面影響,或會導致利潤提升空間沒有想像中大。
最後亦談談日清業務表現。根據早前公告,中國區銷售淨額146.94億日圓,按年上升30%,營業收入則上升94.7%。相比上半年銷售淨額及營業收入升7.7%及跌24%大為改善。集團解釋主要是因期內原材料上漲被成本削減以及內地銷售量增加所致,但會否涉及其他原因,則可能要待詳細業績或大行報告才知曉。雖然日清於內地高檔即食麵市場上穩佔一席,但始終行業競爭相關激烈,所以筆者暫時仍對其前景有所保留,故暫不建議吸納。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指需回試24,400點支持
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(10日)美股三大股指全線下挫,跌幅達1%-2%。美國1月消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期大增7.5%,超過市場預估的7.2%,創40年新高,加強市場對聯儲大幅加息的預期。各個聯儲銀行總裁看法分歧,聖路易斯總裁支持7月初之前累計加息一厘,當中包括一次內加息50個基點。利率期貨市場顯示,預計今年美國加息次數達七次,比起兩天前的5.5次有明顯改變,3月份加息0.5厘的機會率亦大幅提升。美國10年期債息衝破2厘關口,高位觸及2.057厘,高盛預期今年底10年期債息將達2.25厘。
債息預期走強將繼續拖累新經濟股之走勢,基於未有業績支持的情況下,股市估值仍然有下修的壓力。指數需先回調至10天線以及100天線水平即24,400點尋找支持。
技術走勢方面,恆指雖然高見25,050點,突破1月份的高位水平,不過亦即成為開市高位並一直回落,需留意能否成功站穩100天線,下一個主要阻力為上月高位24,982點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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