煤炭行情突然急剎車，大幅下跌會再次上演嗎？
春節前後大漲的煤炭行情突然迎來了急剎車。
昨日，國家發展改革委、國家能源局聯合召開會議，安排部署持續做好穩定煤炭市場價格工作，並對監測發現的部分煤炭價格虛高企業進行了約談提醒，要求抓緊核查整改。
消息傳出後，昨日午盤，煤炭板塊由晴轉陰，中國神華跌3.7%，伊泰煤炭跌2.99%，蒙古能源跌2.75%，首鋼資源等跟跌。晚間，煤炭相關期貨也隨着大跌。其中，動力煤跌4.11%，焦煤跌3.5%，焦炭跌2.4%。
今日，煤炭板塊開盤跳水，後逐漸回升。截至下午收盤，申萬煤炭大漲2.4%報2593.65點。説明昨日“穩定煤炭市場價格”工作會議的消息對市場造成的負面情緒正在逐步被消化。
春節前後煤炭的大漲行情主要由三個因素影響。一是對去年年底政策打擊煤炭價格的市場情緒恢復；二是1月印度尼西亞因為擔憂本國內電力不足，採取了為期一個月的暫停煤炭出口政策，而印尼恰好是中國的第一大煤炭進口國，這一消息影響了市場對於供應緊張的擔憂三是“穩增長”大方針下不斷出台新的刺激政策，此前嚴抓的“能耗雙控”開始一定的妥協，節後復工需求提升，尤其是基建產業鏈相關板塊，市場產生了估值修復預期。
事實上，現階段的煤炭供需關係並沒有如去年9月至11月突出。自去年11月國家出手打擊煤炭價格炒作，保障煤炭供應，煤炭的供需緊張關係已經有所緩解。
國家發改委表示，今年2月3日以來內地各地區煤炭產量快速回升，目前已基本恢復至節前水平，全國統調電廠存煤仍保持在1.65億噸以上，較去年同期增加超4,000萬噸。隨著煤炭生產加快恢復，疊加供暖季用煤需求有所下降，煤炭供應保障能力將進一步增強。
這也意味着，煤炭實際供需關係並不是市場關心的重點，重點仍然在於“穩增長”所帶來的邊際需求恢復情況。
從近期市場資金流動方向也可以看出，大量資金從去年的高成長板塊如新能源鋰電、光伏，流向低估值領域如房地產、煤炭、公用事業、銀行金融、建材等。過去一年，賽道題材股漲幅過大，估值過高，如今大量資金進行板塊高低切換，其實仍然需要時間。
政府此時出手召開會議，安排部署持續做好穩定煤炭市場價格工作，目的也只是擔心市場逐利導致去年的“煤超瘋”行情再次上演，影響經濟工作的正常運行，先打一劑預防針，而並非刻意打壓煤炭市場。也就是説，“煤超瘋”行情是不可能了，緩慢上漲更可能是煤炭板塊近期的走勢。
但同時值得注意的是，估值修復股的交易邏輯與成長股的交易邏輯還是有一定區別，成長股可伴隨其成長過程一直持有，而估值修復股卻仍然需要時刻關注具體需求恢復情況與政策的影響。尤其在今年全年主線尚不明晰的當下，煤炭股還是更適合邊走邊打。
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