《大行報告》中金:內地1月新能源車處消費淡季 但料實際銷量強勁
中金髮表研究報告指出,目前中國主要新能源車企開始公佈1月銷量,數據上來看,比亞迪(01211.HK)、哪吒和零跑按月繼續保持小幅增長,產銷表現強;而蔚來(NIO.US)、理想(02015.HK)、小鵬(09868.HK)、極氪和廣汽埃安按月則小幅下滑,上述車企合計乘用車銷量近16.6萬輛,按月降幅低於歷史同期。行業端看,雖然1月新能源處於消費淡季,但該行預計實際銷量表現強勁。
乘聯會預測1月狹義乘用車零售達205萬輛,按年跌6.2%,按月跌3%。中金認爲,目前市場較爲擔心終端需求的問題,負面因素主要有終端折扣收窄及電池漲價,此外12月底的搶裝及車型漲價也帶來衝擊,但往前看,重申汽車需求仍處於觸底向上週期,考慮到春節錯期影響,3月份數據更值得關注,庫存恢復及持幣待購需求釋放都有望支持銷量增長。
中金建議關注頭部自主整車和新勢力車企,包括長汽(02333.HK)、長安(000625.SZ)、吉利(00175.HK)、小鵬、理想、蔚來;穩增長預期下,關注重卡產業鏈,如濰柴動力(02338.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)、威孚高科(000581.SZ)及奧福環保(688021.SH)。
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