糾錯!港股教育股集體大反彈,機構稱市場過分解讀高教政策風險
格隆匯1月28日丨過去幾日受禁止高教VIE及併購等傳聞影響出現大跌的港股教育股今日集體反彈。截至目前,中教控股漲超35%,民生教育、希望教育、東軟教育、中國科培、大地教育和新高教均漲超10%,宇華教育、卓越教育、中國新華教育、21世紀教育和中彙集團等跟漲。對於此次傳聞,機構普遍認為“消息不實”,更有業內人士直言“荒謬”。其中,天風證券稱市場過分解讀高教政策風險致高教非理性下跌,在資產屬性及高質量職教發展大前提下,排除情緒面影響板塊具有估值底,且中長期現金流、股息率價值顯著,目前具有較高性價比,具體來看:第一、關於高教資產剝離及拆除VIE等傳聞,首先高教職教行業社會及教育屬性完全不同於學科培訓及K9學歷;其次國辦及教育部經過數年論證出台的高質量職教發展意見及實施條例已經消除板塊VIE政策風險,短時間推翻概率極低。第二、對於高教禁止併購傳聞,首先政策重點在鼓勵高質量高水平真正內涵式發展;其次目前高教板塊估值(FY22平均4xpe)與一級市場估值嚴重倒掛,現階段不再支撐持續融資併購。但是,迴歸資產本身確定性成長、充沛現金流及高分紅屬性,目前已具備較好吸引力。第三、對於大股東爆倉傳聞,港股高教行業不同於其他領域,通常企業創始人股權佔高且質押情況基本沒有,以中教為例上市至今0減持0質押且未來仍不會質押;板塊該類風險低。天風證券稱,當下港股學歷板塊,特別是高教板塊在經歷2018上市潮,19-20併購潮,21政策靴子落地及最近恐慌式下跌後,未來或迴歸資產真正價值且確定性較強。

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