You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
盈利超預期,贛鋒鋰業能憑業績反轉?
格隆匯 01-25 15:15

昨日,鋰電上游巨頭贛鋒鋰業發佈去年全年業績預報。預報顯示,公司預計2021年全年淨利潤可達到48億元至55億元,較上年增長368.45%-436.76%。其中,第四季度預計實現淨利潤至少為23.27億元。

對於盈利大增,贛鋒鋰業在公吿中稱,隨着新能源汽車及儲能行業的快速發展,下游客户對鋰鹽的需求強勁增長,公司鋰鹽產品產銷量增加且產品價格不斷上漲,公司鋰電池板塊新建項目陸續投產、產能逐步釋放,故公司經營性淨利潤同比增長;及公司持有的金融資產產生公允價值變動收益,導致公司非經常性收益同比增長。

不過,贛鋒鋰業的扣非淨利潤為29至36億元,同比上漲621.00%-795.04%,處於此前機構預測的23.61億元至38.44億元內,主要原因為去年贛鋒鋰業進行了多項鋰礦資源併購項目,計提了一部分利潤。

今日,贛鋒鋰業AH股均高開,截至中午收盤,公司A股漲4.1%報140.4元/股;公司H股漲2.12%報127港元/股。

雖然近期贛鋒鋰業股價有所反彈,但從9月初至今,贛鋒鋰業的股價便一路持續下跌,A股已經累跌逾36%,H股也已經累跌逾24%。

一方面,贛鋒鋰業股價持續下跌;另一方面,鋰價卻一直昂揚向上。

華安證券數據顯示,截至1月21日,碳酸鋰價格為33.25萬元/噸,較上週同比上漲 9.92%;氫氧化鋰價格為27.55萬元/噸,較上週同比上漲9.98%。同時,該證券預計,目前貿易商節前備貨基本完成,市場成交量有所降低,預計鋰價高位維穩運行。

鋰價依舊高位運行,但鋰資源股的股價卻已經持續跌了將近5個月。不僅是贛鋒鋰業,另一鋰業巨頭天齊鋰業9月至今也已累跌逾34%,江特電機累跌逾40%,鹽湖股份累跌逾25%,西藏礦業累跌逾46%。

股市反映的是市場未來的預期,股價走勢是基於今年鋰產能得到一定程度的釋放後造成過剩的預期,因此股價走勢與鋰價走勢在短期內形成了背離的趨勢。

過去一年,新能源汽車的爆發式增長,全球鋰資源開採又因疫情造成停擺,形成了較為嚴重的供需關係失衡問題,也導致了鋰價不斷飆漲,突破歷史新高。

但今年的情況,對上游鋰資源股而言,未必樂觀。一方面是去年因鋰電上游賽道紛紛擴充產能,據浙商證券測算,今年贛鋒鋰業的碳酸鋰產能將達到66568噸,氫氧化鋰產能將達到81000萬噸。

另一方面,去年國內新能源汽車實現了爆發式的增長。對於今年新能源汽車的增長,其實造成了較大的增長壓力,加之今年新能源補貼退坡政策實行,以及較為疲軟的大消費環境,今年國內的新能源汽車銷量增速未必如去年一般景氣。

今年,鋰電產業鏈的上下游的供需失衡問題可能會迎來反轉,而屆時鋰價也將迎來最高值,隨後鋰價也將下跌。

歲末年初,整個鋰電板塊都陷入大跌行情中。過去一年的題材炒作,拔高的股價,已經透支了這個板塊不少股票未來幾年的業績。從上游到下游,鋰資源股率先一步下跌,其實早有徵兆。就算去年業績實現大幅增長,對於贛鋒鋰業這類鋰業巨頭而言,去年股價已是頂峯,漫漫回撤路還有很長一段要走。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account