晨星料中國2022至25年實際GDP增3%至4% 內房市場復甦需時
晨星發表首季亞洲股票市場展望報告指,國內消費增長緩慢意味中國GDP增長可能會放緩,預計2022年至2025年中國實際GDP增長預測為3%至4%,低於市場共識的5%至6%。
晨星高級股票分析員陳貞瑋預計,內房行業需求和供應收縮至少會持續到上半年,市場疲軟情況取決於近期寬鬆政策的程度。而近期政府對內地房地產行業的寬鬆政策如引導銀行增加抵押貸款的數量、引導國企開發商購買陷入困境的開發商資產,顯示出政策收緊高峰期已過,政府亦願意干預並避免該板塊的廣泛違約,惟市場復甦仍需時。內房股首選為中國海外發展(00688.HK)及華潤置地(01109.HK)。
香港房地產方面,晨星高級股票分析員胡啟泰指,去年下半年該板塊的股價較弱,提供了具吸引力的買入點,並認為施政報告提出增加中長期房屋供應,短期內不會影響住宅物業價格。雖然中期內利率有望上升,但整體利率仍保持在較低水位,將有助於支持樓價。行業首選為太古地產(01972.HK),因仍看好香港寫字樓的長期需求。
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