植耀輝: 美股業績期續波動 港股走勢似轉強
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股近期走勢相當波動,最大原因在於市場相信聯儲局未來加息步伐會變得前所未有地「鷹」!由最初預期年內加息三次,到現在可能加息七次,更有甚者認為三月加息幅度將達到0.5厘!難怪美國科技股跌過人仰馬翻。不過筆者認為聯儲局「鷹極有限」,亦不太相信3月會加0.5厘及全年加七次息。相信美股在本輪震盪後有望回穩。當然業績期成績表表現亦須留意,筆者持有之高盛(GS.US)便因業績遜預期而單日急跌近7%(年初至今跌近一成),執筆之時另一科技股Netflix(NFLX.US)亦因首季客量增長指引遠遜預期,股價盤後大跌兩成!另外納指亦已從高位回調超過10%。但正如上文提到,由於對加息看法與坊問看法不同,故筆者仍認為個別優質股如台積電(TSM.US)及ASML(ASML.US)等仍值得吸納。
至於港股走勢似乎亦有轉強跡象,昨日在權重股(ATM+友邦)急升下恆指抽升824點,逼近25,000點關口。急升原因似乎是與北水以及投資者憧憬監管政策放鬆有關。不過升勢未見全面,而且亦未見相關確切消息,所以即使恆指急升,但筆者對後市看法亦仍未敢過於樂觀,且看短期是否能企穩100天線(約24,600點)。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有高盛)
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恆指大成交向上突破 打破浪低於浪格局
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(20日)美股先升後回展現過山車行情,道指一度升逾400點,不過有對於網絡平台的反壟斷議案出台,加上美國每周新申領失業救濟人數急升至3個月高位,拖累道指收市倒跌逾300點,連跌五日。納指盤中曾上揚2%,但收市亦倒跌1%,創七個月新低。人民銀行昨日下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR),帶動內房股全線抽升,最新有指北京、上海、廣州等多地銀行房貸放款提速,將繼續利好板塊反彈。美國制裁中國三間實體,理由是它們參與飛彈技術擴散,美國昨日指未能取消對中國之關稅,兩國關係將會成為大市走勢的下一個催化劑。
技術走勢來看,恆指出現有成交配合的突破訊號,自去年6月後再度突破100天線,同時亦有逾1,700億元成交配合有利好之勢,成功守穩的話有望再度向上,指數暫時已打破了浪低於浪的格局。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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