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《大行報告》野村下調快手(01024.HK)目標價至108元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 01-17 10:40
野村發表報告,預計快手(01024.HK)去年第四季的收入將按年增長28%至231億元人民幣(下同),與市場預期一致。由於快手在營銷支出和研發費用方面更加嚴格,通用會計準則下的營業利潤率可能為負24%,按年下降16個百分點,好於市場預期的負34%,而非美國通用會計準則下的淨虧損可能為32億元,好於市場一致認為的淨虧損54億元。 按業務板塊劃分,野村預計快手第四季網絡廣告收入將按年增長52%,主要是受用戶流量持續增長的推動。電商業務方面,由於高基數效應,預測其電商GMV在2021年第四季按年增長29%至2,290億元,因此預計其電子商務和其他收入在第四季度將按年增長34%。在直播節目服務方面,由於用戶參與度提高,其收入增長可能從去年第三季的按年收縮3%提高到第四季的按年持平。另外,在用戶指標方面,野村預計快手的平均日活躍用戶(DAU)將按年增長18%至3.2億。 鑒於中國宏觀經濟的疲軟和疫情形勢的惡化,該行估計快手的廣告收入在2022財年將增長放緩至35%,估計其直播業務將繼續略有改善,收入增長8%,而電子商務網站成交金額(GMV)可能在2022財年實現40%的增長。由於廣告收入增長放緩,該行將快手2022財年的收入預測削減11%,同時將2021財年或2022財年的非美國通用會計準則經營利潤率預測分別提高3.2個百分點及7.7個百分點,因為對經營費用的控制更好。該行維持快手「買入」評級,目標價由114港元下調至108港元。
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