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中金料今年內地中下遊先進製造及泛消費行業將獲關注
阿思達克 01-11 12:28
中金公司首席策略師王漢鋒認爲,今年中國市場仍存在衆多不確定性,但相信機會大於風險,指出中國與海外政策週期相反,近期海外政策收緊,增長從高位回落,相對中國政策逐步放鬆,預期增長可自谷底回升。 他指出,市場流動性良好,現時港股及A股估值於歷史水平屬偏低,認爲市場毋須太悲觀,未來主要應留意企業債務、 房地產市場發展、通脹、中美關係及疫情影響等。股票市場方面,他認爲在穩增長方針下宏觀經濟相關行業已見回升,近月香港的金融、地產股出現估值修復,基建相關行業亦獲得投資者青睞,預期內地經濟開始穩定、政策效果浮現後,市場將關注可持續增長領域,包括中下遊先進製造業及泛消費行業。 他又指,過往中國以生產技術含量低的產品爲主,但隨着產業升級,新能源汽車產業鏈發展強勁,吸引到海外資金的興趣,海外投資者已從過往傳統重倉中國互聯網企業、醫藥、消費行業,擴充至關注中國的優質、高技術製造業,預期在全球推動碳中和的發展下,投資趨勢將持續。 問及人民幣走勢,中金公司首席宏觀分析師張文朗認爲,今年初人民幣兌美元不排除有小幅下行空間,但預期第二季經濟增長開始加快,人民幣或將輕微回升;相對於一籃子貨幣則預期維持穩定。
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