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《大行報告》中金引述快手(01024.HK)料上季度電商、廣告和直播收入將超此前指引 用戶數較好
阿思達克 01-10 12:05
快手(01024.HK)今日股價抽上,盤中曾高見79.35元一度升12.2%。中金發表報告表示,該行組織了快手的非交易性管理層反路演,公司對投資者所關心的用戶、商業化、費用及監管等問題進行了解答,快手觀察到去年第四季度用戶數情況較好,未出現常見的季節性按季下降。公司認為用戶時長增長是在需求驅動下的自然增長。 該行引述快手管理層預料去年四季度電商、廣告和直播收入將超過此前指引。廣告方面,公司預計疲軟的宏觀環境下,外部廣告主對廣告效果的要求提高,快手廣告以效果廣告為主,公司認為其能持續獲取更多廣告份額,年內按年增速可能會出現前低後高態勢。 第二是電商,快手計劃繼續優化供應鏈能力,希望今年品牌銷量佔比能從去年不到10%提升至20%,公司鼓勵商家做店播與達人合作的結合,達到GMV增長與投放ROI的平衡。公司2021年開始探索本地生活內容,認為快手的流量和美團的商家網絡將實現共贏,形成產品、服務、評價的正向循環。第三是直播:公司預計2022年直播收入將有高個位數到低雙位數的按手增長,長期將維持在32-35%的毛利率水平。 中金指,利潤方面,快手2021年三季度開始控制海外市場費用,去年8月開始優化國內投放,新用戶渠道優化和留存提升提高了用戶獲取效率。去年第四季度市場費用開支低於此前公司預期,公司預計經調整經營虧損將比第三季度減虧約20億人民幣。公司預計2022年海外投入不會超過2021年,國內補貼也將下降,電商及廣告的用戶激勵和補貼可能會加強,總體營銷費用率將繼續改善。該行維持對快手「跑贏行業」評級及目標價140元。
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