《大行報告》瑞信:印尼1月暫停出口 煤價短期存上升風險
印尼1月暫停煤炭出口。瑞信發表報告,若措施嚴格執行,預計這可能會影響到中國的1,400萬至1,500萬公噸煤炭進口,而中國在2021年首十一個月,中國從印尼進口了1.78億噸煤炭,約佔總進口量60%。該行預計,禁令可能爲煤價帶來短期上行風險,然而隨着春節假期的臨近,電力消費趨於疲軟,煤炭需求也會疲軟,煤炭價格將繼續承壓,預期對價格的影響不會長遠持續。
瑞信估計,印尼煤炭出口禁令帶來的潛在影響應該是在1月中旬至2月中旬出現,發改委去年底再次發佈通知,要求煤礦2022年1月保障煤炭供應,過去一個月,煤炭價格下跌27%至每噸800元人民幣,主要是由於消費量低於預期和煤炭產量保持高位。
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