《大行報告》中金料內地網企本季基本面展望平淡 對明年廣告業務增速預期謹慎
中金發表報告,預期內地互聯網企業今季基本面展望平淡,11月主流電商平台用戶流量因「雙十一」購物節的到來均出現按月提升,淘寶、京東(09618.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、手機天貓、唯品會(VIPS.US)的月活躍用戶、日活躍用戶等數據皆按月上升。不過,該行指疫情反覆導致11月各主流OTA平台的用戶流量大幅下降,攜程(09961.HK)、去哪兒旅行及飛豬的數據均出現大幅按月下降。
該行表示,納斯達克指數月按月保持平穩,中國互聯網部分股票的股價承壓。其中,京東上漲7%、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)下跌及拼多多下跌25%,主要由於電商平台第三季度業績及「雙十一」購物節期間表現分化;而美團(03690.HK)下跌12%及攜程下跌4%,主要受到局部疫情反覆、消費者出行受阻的影響。
另外,內地電商行業11月線上消費進入旺季,受高基數、整體消費疲軟以及直播帶貨對部分品類造成的分流影響,「雙十一」逐漸步入新常態,GMV增速較往年有所放緩,電商平台更聚焦於供需兩端的可持續發展。遊戲行業則受未成年人保護等政策以及個人信息保護法的影響。
中金仍維持對近期遊戲大盤增速的保守態度,長期關注遊戲出海進展。該行仍然看好內容行業視頻化大趨勢,未來短視頻平台頭部集中度仍有提升空間。
展望明年,該行對廣告大盤增速維持相對謹慎態度,建議關注先前營銷費用較高,有費用率改善邏輯的標的。而本地生活行業外賣受疫情和宏觀消費疲軟影響,11月增速出現下滑。至於社區團購逐步進入生鮮線上購物旺季,但頭部平台更為關注降虧損提毛利,預計單量增長速度保持緩和。
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